Population Projections

Since 2003, the population on the Sunshine Coast serviced with water from the Chapman water system has grown from 19,906 in 2003 to 21,722 in 2011 (SCRD, 2013), which is approximately 0.9% annual growth over the decade.   In the SCRD’s Comprehensive Regional Water Plan (2013), population growth projections were developed as part of their analysis on future water demand and included 0.75%, 1.25%, and 2% annual growth rates.  The same projections have been incorporated into this report and the table below shows the three projections for population growth until 2050 (Figure 18).

Figure 18: Estimated 5-year population growth for the Chapman water system to from 2011 (the last census year) to 2051 at growth rates of 0.75%, 1.25%, and 2% from 2011 to 2050

Tourist Population

The Sunshine Coast is a popular tourist destination for residents of the greater Vancouver area, BC residents and people from around the world.  The increase in population from tourism varies throughout the year and is estimated to be greatest in July and August, where the average daily population is estimated to increase by approximately 2000 people for the Chapman water system (Figure 19).  The increase in water consumption from increase in tourism is very difficult to determine and there appears to be no consensus on this relationship.  On the one hand, tourists can be assumed to not use water for irrigating lawns and gardens like residents would because tourists are not as concerned with caring for gardens and lawns.  On the other hand, tourists may not understand the regional water issues or follow current watering restrictions, and may actually use more water than the average resident, especially during times of water scarcity.  Despite the uncertainties in water consumption in relation to tourism, there is a significant correlation between the estimated amount of vacationers and annual average water consumption (Spearman Rank Correlation, p = 5.94e x 10^-6).   Although further analysis is required to determine what impacts the increase in summer population from tourism has on water consumption, tourism should be considered as a water management issue during times of water scarcity.

Figure 19: Estimated increase in population from tourism based on BC ferry data