Archive for March, 2006
Ollanta Humala and “Operación Cuchara” in Madre Mía
UNI National Poll 18-19 March: Humala holds the lead, Garcia 8 points behind Flores
Source: La República, 24 de marzo del 2006
According to the latest poll conducted by the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (UNI), which interviewed voters between 18-19 March, Ollanta Humala stands at 28.8 percent, Lourdes Flores at 24.8 percent, and Alan Garcia is 8 points behind Flores, holding onto third place with 16.3 percent. The survey results are based on decided voters not all voters. All other candidates are in single digits.
In the event of a runoff between Flores and Humala, Flores would win 40.4 percent of the vote, and Humala would win 37.5 percent. In a runoff between Flores and Garcia, Flores would win with 42.9 percent to 28.3 percent for Garcia. In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala wins with 39.1 percent to Garcia’s 23.6 percent.
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Según la última encuesta de la UNI realizada entre el 18 y 19 de marzo, Ollanta Humala con el 28.8% y Lourdes Flores, con el 24.8% de la intención de votos, se afirman en los primeros lugares, mientras que Alan García se mantiene rezagado en la tercera posición a 8 puntos de la candidata de Unidad Nacional con 16.3%. Cabe destacar que este sondeo ofrece los resultados según la intención de voto y no los votos validamente emitidos, no tomándose en cuenta los votos, blancos, nulos y viciados.
Ficha Técnica: Encuesta realizada por el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IECOS) de la Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería con financiamiento propio. La metodología utilizada fue la de entrevista personal en domicilio y se tocó las puertas de 2,511 personas de distintos grupos socioeconómicos. La cobertura fue de 126 distritos de 38 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. La encuesta se realizó el 18 y 19 de marzo. El nivel de confianza es del 95% y el margen de error calculado fue de +/- 2%.
UPDATE: UNDP Report: Democracy in Peru
La Democracia en el Peru. El mensaje de las Cifras (Resumen Informativo). Unidad del Informe de Desarrollo Humano, Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Lima 23 de marzo del 2006 Download file
Source: La Republica, march 23, 2006
Source: El Comercio, 23 de marzo del 2006
Source: La República, 24 de marzo del 2006
Mirko Lauer on Results CPI Poll for Congressional Seats for Lima
Woodman: Garcia supported by Mining, Humala by Chavez
Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for National Unity, says Hugo Chavez is supporting the campaign of Ollanta Humala and Garcia has support from mining enterprises.
ONPE Sends Election Materials to Provinces
ONPE has begun to send election materials to local offices around the country.
How Attacking Humala Can be Counter-Productive
Juan Carlos Tafur argues that President Alejandro Toledo’s “subliminal” attacks on Ollanta Humala are counter-productive, since Toledo’s presidency–his lack of leadership, frivolitry, and corruption–is one of the main reasons for the rise of Humala. Enrique Obando also analyzes the over-reaction of some sectors (and embassies) to the rise of Humala, saying that before concluding that the Peruvian people do not know how to choose their leaders, we should consider how the benefits of economic prosperity have not been shared.
In another piece, Obando is quoted saying that Humala would not be able to govern with the armed forces and would be forced to make an alliance with the American Popular Revoltuionary Alliance, APRA, in congress.
Interview with Maxwell A. Cameron: Humala has Filled the Vacuum Created by the Collapse of the Left
CPI Metropolitan Lima Poll: Congressional Seats
Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica Poll:
Elecciones Generales 2006: Ranking de candidatos, segun la intencion de voto preferencial por partidos politicos y Ranking de los 35 candidatos al congreso por Lima con mayor votacion preferencial Download file
Elecciones Generales 2006: Intencion de voto por listas parlamentarias y voto preferencial, segun partidos politicos. Departamento de Lima Download file
Sample: 1290 individuals interviewed between March 15-19, 2006 in 31 districts in Metropolitan Lima and Huaura, Cañete, Huaral, Barranca and Huarochiri. Margin of error: ± 2.7%. Funded by Diario Correo and Radio Programas del Peru.
Only APRA Can Save Peru–From Humala
According to Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) is presenting itself as the only party that can stop Ollanta Humala. Whereas a runoff with Flores would polarize the country between rich and poor, in a runoff between Garcia and Humala the competition would shift to another plane.
However, the recent UNI poll suggests that in a second round Humala beats Garcia but not Flores.
ONPE: Date for Second Round not yet Chosen
Interview with Lucien Chauvin: Peruvian Media Lacks Respect for Readers
National Unity Telephone Advertising Campaign
The Peruvian Consumers Association has received hundreds of calls complaining about a National Unity telephone advertising campaign.
APRA denuncia al FIM por “campaña agraviante” ante el JNE
Fujimori´s Extradition: Peruvian Supreme Court Approves Accusation for 1992 Autogolpe
Andean Parliament Candidate Presents Administrative Demand against JNE
Jorge Paz Machado, Andean Parliament candidate in the list of Peru Posible has presented an administrive demand against the National Electoral Board (JNE) for changing his number in the congressional list for 10 instead of 15.
Updated – Elena Tasso de Humala, Mother of Candidate Ollanta Humala, calls for homosexuals to be shot
Ollanta Humala’s mother, Elena Tasso de Humala, has called for homosexuals to be shot. The statement has outraged the GLBT community in Lima. Ollanta Humala has requested his parents not to talk with the media until April 9. More about Peruvian political parties proposals to eliminate sexual discrimination in this posting.
LGBT activists supporting candidates of the Movimiento Nueva Izquierda have distributed an electronic communique accusing the local media of distorting the purpose of a public meeting that took place yesterday, March 22. The Activists denie that the purpose of the meeting was to protest against presidential candidate Ollanta Humala. The protest was against repressive measures taken by the Major of Lima against the LGBT community.
Ollanta Humala and Peru’s Democracy
As Ollanta Humala takes the lead in the campaign, a chorus of analysts has begun to call attention to the implications of an Humala victory for Peru’s democratic regime. Sociologist Julio Cotler, writer Mario Vargas Llosa, and columnist Juan Paredes Castro are among the observers sounding the alarm.
Financial Times: Peru Elite Braces for Possible Humala Victory
Peru elite braces for possible Humala victory
By Richard Lapper and Hal Weitzman in Lima
Financial Times Americas, March 21 2006 17:39
“The outcome of the country’s general election on April 9 may be uncertain, but many within Lima’s political and business elite are planning for a Humala victory” says the Financial Times. “A proponent of higher taxes and greater state involvement in the economy, Mr Humala is not a natural friend of business. But while some businessmen cling to hopes of a more traditional candidate winning, others are jockeying for position and trying to shape the policies of the next government.”
Roundtable: Electoral Platforms Against Sexual Discrimination
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Photo: J. Bazo
Oscar Ugarteche, Belissa Andía, Vicente Otta, Sandra Vallenas, Susel Paredes y Víctor Andrés García Belaúnde Velarde
Universidad del Pacifico and Weblog Peru Election 2006 Roundtable “Peru Election 2006: Analysis of Policy Platforms to Support Sexual Diversity”
Maxwell Cameron & Fabiola Bazo
March 20, 2006
Under the auspices of Universidad del Pacifico, a roundtable on “Policy Platforms to Support Sexual Diversity” was held on Friday, March 10, 2006. What follows is a brief summary some of the key issues and conclusions that emerged from the discussion.
CPI National Poll, March 15-19, 2006: Humala in First Place
El último estudio de opinión pública sobre intención de voto a nivel nacional de la Compañia Peruana de Opinión y Mercados arrojó los siguientes resultados del total de votos válidamente emitidos:
1. Ollanta Humala (Unión por el Perú) con 31.6%
2. Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional) con 29.1%
3. Alan García (APRA) con 21.6%
4. Valentín Paniagua (Frente de Centro) con 6%
5. Martha Chávez (Alianza por el Futuro) con 5.5%
Ficha Técnica: Sondeo realizado entre el 15 al 19 de marzo del 2006, universo conformado por la población urbana y rural del país, 280 distritos de 20 departamentos, 2,860 electores hábiles con un margen de error de +/-1.86%. Fuente de financiamiento: RPP y Diario Correo.
Charts: Download file
Resultados: Download file
Analistas y Consultores, Metropolitan Lima Poll, March 15-17, 2006: If Elections were Today, Unidad Nacional Would be First Congressional Force in Lima
Source: La Primera, 21 de marzo del 2006
Según la última encuesta de Analistas y Consultores a nivel de Lima, Unidad Nacional colocaría el mayor número de legisladores en el próximo Congreso representando a Lima. La segunda fuerza parlamentaria sería el APRA, mientras que en tercer lugar sería para Alianza por el Futuro. UPP se ubicaría cuarto.
Ficha técnica: Encuesta de Analistas y Consultores con registro 0004-REE/JNE, realizada con recursos propios, utilizando el método de entrevista personal domiciliaria, con una muestra de 800 personas, mayores de edad. Se desarrolló a nivel de Lima en 37 distritos, entre el 15 y 17 de marzo. El margen de error es del 3.46% con un 95% de nivel de confianza.
Scenarios for a Second Round
Mirko Lauer examines two scenarios. First, a second round between Ollanta Humala and Lourdes Flores that would polarize the race and exacerbate ethnic and class divisions along with the feeling of exclusion most people have. The polarization would be between A&B sector voters and the rest, especially given the 71% support in sector A for Flores and only 1% for Humala. Lauer predicts that Humala would win in this case. A second scenario would be a second round between Humala and Valentin Paniagua or Humala and Alan Garcia. The presence of Garcia or Paniagua, both candidates representing a centre option, would dimish the polarization and would permit democracy to remain as the central theme in the election.
In an interview with La Republica, Enrique Zileri expressed his concern with how much is unknown about Ollanta Humala. Zileri is concerned with a government led by Humala, how Humala would relate with the media, would he continue calling himself “Comandante”? For Zileri, if there were a second round between Garcia and Humala or Garcia and Flores, Garcia would win given that APRA is at the centre of the political spectrum, while Humala and Flores are at opposite ends.
Finally, Milagros Salazar explores the anger and frustration of the Peruvian voter outside Lima and the “political correctness” of Lourdes Flores in dealing with such deep resentment.
Lima Stock Market & UPP’s Economic Plan
Source: La República, 21 de marzo del 2006
Interview with Francisco Durand
In this interview Francisco Durand talks about Peruvian business groups and his latest book on neoliberalism and the state.
Valentín Paniagua y su relanzamiento de campaña
Interview with Isaac Humala & Elena Tasso
Ollanta Humala: There Is No Recording with Vladimiro Montesinos
Responding to Fernando Olivera’s allegations yesterday, Ollanta Humala has denied the existence of recordings of conversations between him and Vladimiro Montesinos. Humala’s party may take legal action after April 9 against Olivera for defamation. For Mauricio Mulder, the allegation may become a boomerang for Olivera.
46.7% of the Electoral Population are under 35
Frente de Centro, Partido Socialista & Concertación Descentralista Began Talks
Representatives from the three political parties are considering to form a left-center coalition to challenge the three leading candidates. This initiative follows the cyber-campaign a for a Moral Election.
APOYO National Poll: No Majority in the Next Congress
Source: El Comercio, 20 de marzo del 2006
Flores, Garcia & Humala Commenting on the Results of the Latest APOYO Poll
Financial Times Analyzes the Results of the Latest APOYO Poll
Electoral Scenarios
Juan Carlos Tafur, Enrique Bernales, Fernado Tuesta and Antonio Zapata outline possible scenarios for April 9th and the second round.
Challenges and Choices for the Peruvian Voter
The polarization of the election campaign raises questions about the implications of the outcome for the political regime. Gustavo Gorriti defines the movement behind Ollanta Humala as fascist and more dangerous to democracy than Fujimorismo, while El Comercio editorializes that Peruvians are facing a breaking point for democracy. Finally, for Fernando Rospigliosi, Alan Garcia has adopted some of Alberto Fujimori´s traits by proposing to dissolve congress, to have faceless judges, and to impose the death penalty for sexual crimes.
Assessments of Lourdes Flores Campaign
Jorge Bruce and Guillermo Giacosa explore the limitations of Lourdes Flores in developing an emotional linkage with the Peruvian electorate.
Fernando Olivera: Existen grabaciones entre Humala y Montesinos
Ollanta Humala pide que supuesto testigo de los hechos de Madre Mía de la cara
Ante la noticia publicada por el diario Perú 21 sobre un oficial del Ejército dispuesto a corroborar las denuncias por crímenes de lesa humanidad que habría cometido Ollanta Humala cuando se desempeñó como jefe de la base Madre Mía, en Tingo María, el candidato presidencial de Unión Por el Perú (UPP) les responde.
Interview with Carlos Ferrero
Interview with Valentín Paniagua
Lourdes Flores agredida por humalistas en Huancavelica
Constitutional Tribunal Against Amnesty to Victor Polay & Abimael Guzman
The President of the Constitutional Tribunal, Victor Garcia Toma, expressed his opposition to a grant of amnesty to Victor Polay and Abimael Guzman, as proposed by Isaac Humala. In respose to a communiqué asking for a fair sentence for Victor Polay, the president of the Constitutional Tribunal stated that all Peruvians have the right to a fair process, as granted by the Constitution.
JNE Working toward a Clean, Transparent Electoral Process
APOYO National Poll: Only 9% Approves Current Congress
Source:El Comercio, 20 de marzo del 2006
APOYO National Poll, March 15-17, 2006: Ollanta Humala Takes the Lead
Source: El Comercio, 19 de marzo del 2006
APOYO Opinión y Mercados survey in exclusivity for El Comercio. Universe: 2000 people in 172 districts in 110 localities in 77 provinces in all departments. Margin of error: +/-2.2%. The sample represents 81% of the electoral population of Peru. Download file
The latest result puts Humala and Flores at exactly where they were in the middle of January. Shortly after taking the lead, Humala’s support declined and Flores recovered first place in the polls. Since the end of January, Flores has steadily lost her lead and Humala, after a slump, has recovered. Garcia has risen slightly since January and is currently stable at 21 percent.
Source: El Comercio, 19 de marzo del 2006
Interview with Ollanta Humala
Interview with Carlos Tapia
In this interview Carlos Tapia assesses the Peruvian left. He also argues that Ollanta Humala has captured the protest vote given the lack of unity in the Left.
JNE will Permit Exit Polls on the Day of the Election
Sunday, April 2 is the last day for pollster to publish the results of their surveys.
On the day of the election, April 9th, pollsters will be able to do exit polls and make the results public from 4:00 pm on.
Interview with Alan Garcia
Ollanta Humala and Human Rights Abuses in Madre Mía
A member of the armed forces, who served in Huallaga at the same time as Ollanta Humala, has gave a statement to local authorities investigating Humala in Tingo María that would implicate the presidential candidate with extra judiciary executions.