Can you envision alternative scenarios to the Western pattern for China’s growth? Is there anything China can/should do to expand affluence among its people without increasing its share of global carbon emissions?
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Brandon Davis
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congo96, 
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hannahepperson, and 27 others are discussing.
roypat 3:49 am on February 20, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think the only way that China can continue its current trend of strong and consistent growth is by continuing to use energy sources that are cheap, but add a great deal to global carbon emissions (namely, coal). Since China’s manufacturing industry is booming and it is producing goods for a huge portion of the planet, I think that the continued increases in standard of living for many of the country’s people are tied to manufacturing growth. It will be a difficult case to make to tell China to ease up on carbon emissions and in turn, slow growth.
brandond 5:43 pm on February 28, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
Indeed, especially since China has the third largest coal reserve in the world.
jonl 12:47 pm on February 20, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
The alternative that I can think of would be what Ghandi preached for India, stay local. But with China’s growth tied with global production of goods, as roypat said, the Western pattern seems like the only way it will go. The Western pattern is all about globalization. If China is in this Western pattern, then I feel like it will end up being another US which is terrible for our environment.
sharonshi 4:24 pm on February 20, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think there is absolutely ways in which China can alter its route towards the Western pattern. As a result of the ever-increasing “green” inventions these days, China can utilize those tools in order to expand affluence among its people without increasing its share of global carbon emissions. During the industrial revolution, the level of pollution released was also a cause of having “non-green” machinery. These days, protecting the environment has developed into a global concern and people have been finding new ways to be more “green”. A great example of this would the energy efficient light bulbs(a development that helps reduce the amount of energy consumed). With ever increasing developments like such, I am certain that there are alternative scenarios to which China can pursue.
msmith92 6:15 pm on February 20, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I agree with Sharon with what Sharon said above. Perhaps if China were able to emphasize sustainable growth via the use of environmentally-friendly technologies, they would be able to continue to spread affluence among the population. However, it may already be too late for this as they are focused on maximal productivity and are already extremely reliant on fossil fuels. In the Western steps of industrialization, this reliance on fossil fuels seems to be a hard one to avoid. This is likely because the use of fossil fuels allowed developed nations to become extremely efficient producers. This has set a precedence for other nations and so fossil fuels seem to really be the only feasible option.
jaydee 6:54 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
Exactly what I was thinking. Use of fossil fuels are allowing China to “catch up” to western levels of industrialization. I can see the hypocrisy in the more developed countries pressuring China to take a “more green” route. Although it would probably be a better move, both for the local and global environment, it would make the process of industrialization slower and more expensive. It’s easy to tell someone to use a less harmful method if you yourself have already done the deed. Perhaps if we began programs that create incentives for China to shift to more environmentally friendly methods, we could find a middle ground?
katehaxt 1:46 pm on February 22, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
China’s growth is happening now while “Western” growth started in the 18th century. Surely China’s growth can and will be different. There is new technology and most importantly new awareness of the impacts of fossil fuel growth. It would be stupid and irresponsible for China’s growth path not to be fundamentally diffferent. Also I think we’ve heard suggestions in other readings that many trappings of modernity became popular, not because they fundamentally improved people’s lives, but because they were cool and “modern”. For instance I can imagine that in alot of places in China a car would not be practical or useful, maybe China can bypass car fever and raise standards of living in more meaningful ways.
bgibson 4:27 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I definitely think that implementing modern technologies may allow China to grow in a way that differs from traditional “Western” growth. However, I know for a fact that China is just as car crazy as the rest of the world, and possibly more so that even those of us in North America. The automobile market in China is growing rapidly and is seen (with India) as one of the largest emerging markets for automobile sale. When GM restructured following the most recent economic crises it eliminated many of its brands (Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer) but kept Buick, despite the fact that Buick sells relatively poorly in North America in Europe. However, Buick is hugely popular in China and GM considers the brand essential to future growth.
I was travelling in China a number of years ago and one of the tour guides in Shanghai was very adamant that everybody in Shanghai wanted to own a car. As far as social status goes, owning a car in Shanghai was more important than owning an apartment (in her words). Now, Shanghai is one of the most westernized cities in China, but it’s also very urban and would be on of the easiest to get around without a car. Still, I think car fever is fairly well established in China.
jenniefrench 5:48 pm on February 26, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I absolutely think that there are ways that China can grow in a different and more sustainable and environmentally friendly way than the Western Method. I see China deciding to be a leader in sustainable technology, especially as the demand for ‘green’ products increases. I believe that China has the capacity to make greater steps forward in environmental responsibility, because it has so many people to care for, and because it has a centralized government that can enact quickly on what they deem to be important. Population is an important point. China has, perhaps contentiously, already brought in population control. And there is a huge number of people who bike in Chine (for economic/poverty reasons or other). China needs to be creative and I believe that if they make the choice to be truly ‘green’ they could succeed.
youngblutt 10:51 am on February 27, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I believe that China is industrializing along a much different path than Europe and America did. As katehaxt pointed out, the fact is that China has the hindsight and finally the ambition to develop in a more sustainable way than the Anglo-European model of the 18th/19th century and it can be argued that they ARE doing it. China’s new 5 year, economic plan has been praised as a model for large-scale, progressive national development. I can only hope that China’s promise of temporary coal energy use will ultimately lead to the implementation of far-reaching renewable energy use as they’ve suggested. So far, they’ve managed to avoid the baneful automobile fetishism of the Western model and they don’t have the aesthetic concerns that are sinking wind energy projects in Europe and America.
China now battles against decades of blind haste to develop industrially. This has caused grave environmental situations and human rights issues. Over the past 5 years they’ve begun to take steps to correct the errors of their haste. China now sits atop the world as producers of clean energy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/energy-environment/31renew.html
brandond 5:52 pm on February 28, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
That was an interesting article. Since China has less reliable sources of oil than countries like Canada or the U.S., it makes lot of sense that they would want to invest in alternative energies. The U.S. spends trillions of dollars to fight wars to protect their oil supplies, while China invests in alternative energies. Although China relationship with Kenya is increasingly beginning to resemble U.S. relations to underdeveloped oil-producing countries.
hannahepperson 1:28 pm on March 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
That’s an interesting insight I hadn’t thought through very critically – that the astronomical military expenditures to protect oil could/are used elsewhere to invest in alternative energies. I had always thought it was ridiculous, the variance in expenditures between US military expenditures vs. education, but hadn’t thought about that in the context of energy. thanks for raising that point.
alyumam 12:02 am on March 5, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I agree, this is a very interesting article. I see all this (i.e. invest on clean energies, low cost of manufacturing, new economic relations) as a rehearse for new world scenarios, hopefully with more sustainable practices and less damage for our planet.
I hope, as Prof. Brandon mentions, this does not end up resembling the present example like the one the US has set in several countries around the world.
paige 12:34 am on February 28, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I agree with what Sharon has said about the modern green alternatives. The western industrial revolution sparked studies of how to prevent what it caused, these results can be utilized by countries just now going through those steps. I think the only way these green alternatives will ever actually be implemented is if they are cheap to use. In the end it all comes down to money. I think that China will be able to learn from the history and move towards a more sustainable future as a developed country.
brandond 6:10 pm on February 28, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
A number of you have mentioned that China is becoming a leader in both green technologies and alternative energies. There are also signs that some Chinese are taking a lead in eco-friendly urban developments. One example I heard about recently is the development of an “eco-city” on the outskirts of Shanghai. Here is the wikipedia entry on it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dongtan. Unfortunately, the financing for it seems to be a major issue.
That being said, I would like to still stress that while China is taking some notable efforts towards sustainability, their, and the many foreign manufacturing companies based in China, environmental record over the past thirty years is quite abysmal. I have relatives in China whose kids have health problems due to contaminated milk (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal). This is one of the few environmental scandals that has become public in China. Most never receive the light of day due to a lack of a free press.
Joyce Lin 9:16 pm on February 28, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
This is an extremely difficult question. Even economists and environmentalists who are much more knowledgeable than I have difficulty answering questions like this. Obviously, a focus on developing alternative energies will be key. I think there are many people who envision a different economic transition from Europe and North America…one with the same amount of affluence but less harm to the environment. How this plays out, to be frank, I can’t even begin to predict. I think, however, the most important thing to learn from history in this case, is to not let the desire for affluence sacrifice the care for the environment’s well being (such was the case when the London fog situation was neglected in England). As long as you develop without just a lone focus on the economy but all the variables involved…I think development does not have to translate to poor environment management.
natashap 12:00 pm on February 29, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think for China and other countries to avoid the “Western” pattern of growth would require a significant amount of economic and other assistance from developed countries. The problem with the “Western” pattern of development is that the technologies used in the beginning – coal, oil, etc – are very environmentally unfriendly and that newer more “green” technologies can be expensive; obviously given the choice between a cheap technology and more expensive one, the cheap technology will be chosen unless there’s some incentive to chose the other. So maybe a system where people were encouraged to purchase items produced with green technology or developed countries provided economic help to developing countries to implement the green technology could help avoid the problems with the “Western” pattern of growth.
emilym 2:37 pm on February 29, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
We have realized how bad for the environment the Western pattern of growth has been, but it will be extremely difficult to tell China that they aren’t entitled to follow the same patten that developed countries have followed in the past. The case of China is especially difficult since they had so many coal reserves and the Western patten is bringing them rapid growth. I think China needs to focus some of their investments into generating sustainable energy. Since China’s whole strategy of growth is based on the use of the globalized market, I think it will be hard for them to follow Ghandi’s strategy of staying local, but it would be possible and beneficial for China to focus on building green technologies and move towards sustainable energy since even China’s vast coal reserves are finite and non-renewable and oil dependence is already an issue for the country.
Keaton Briscoe 10:17 pm on February 29, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think that by using another approach other than the Western Pattern will cause great effect to China’s growth as a country. Eventhough China uses cheap resources, like coal, and has a larger carbon emission rate than other countries, changing their pattern I think would result in completely changing their growth as a nation. I think that some initiatives could be applied to their pattern that a more “green”, but a completely change would cause major changes.
bgibson 4:56 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
While I can imagine alternative approaches to development that China could attempt I think it is extremely unlikely. China is focused on developing its economic potential as rapidly as possible and is following a proven model to accomplish this. As has been previously mentioned in this thread China has easy and cheap access to a wealth of domestic coal, so fossil fuels will be used to power much of the industrial infrastructure. Furthermore, following a western model of development is easier and safer (there is a successful template to follow) than embarking on a new model. I really don’t see how China, a nation that still struggles with human rights issues (among many others) and doesn’t have a true democratic system, will be encouraged to consider the environmental impact of its development. If they can’t be convinced to legislate basic workers rights I don’t expect the nation to legislate laws against pollution or to attempt to reduce their carbon footprint.
I think one of the more encouraging signs is that China is heavily investing in research and development of new technologies. Chinese researchers are consistently producing new research and publishing papers. I was putting together a presentation on metal nanotube technology last term and many of the most recent papers were from Chinese authors at Chinese universities. I think it has been pointed out how China has finite coal resources and limited access to oil reserves so hopefully research and development will reach the point where alternative energy sources can be used to spur further development and China’s environmental track record can begin to improve.
brenden 5:29 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I agree that it is extremely unlikely for China’s development to follow a path that differs from the western style of modernization. China’s economy is focused around cheap domestic growth achieved through a focus on exports, agriculture and cheap domestic production. Based on the size of their population, I feel that they will continue to exploit both their natural resources and the environment to maintain their competitive advantage in the global economy. Since the focus is on increasing the standard of living in economic terms, it is highly unlikely that China will have a green revolution, the way the western world is beginning to, with the development of emissions controls and a shift towards alternative methods of energy and environmentally friendly production processes . I believe that until it has exhausted its resources, China will continue its current path of modernization until it is forced to move to alternatives out of necessity. It truly is unfortunate that our economy in structured in such a way that the environment is continually exploited until resources are completely exhausted before we begin to realize the need for alternatives.
sampethick 7:11 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
China wants to be its own country with its own ways of doing things. I think in this sense, China wants to come up with its own ways of decreasing its carbon emissions, out of the West’s shadow. I think that China (in the best case scenario for them as a country) will try and come up with its own new technologies and ideas for decreasing carbon emissions while continuing to live comfortably. Maybe they could even do this by building and expanding already existing ideas. That is however, not really the most likely scenario. I like what Jonl said about staying local, but again, unlikely. China has grown in the industrial world far too big to go back to buying and selling local and I don’t think that they have any desire or intention to do so. So probably, their best option would be to follow in the footsteps of the Western pattern. I really don’t think that there is much anyone can do to expand affluence among people without increasing carbon emissions. Money is the reason people are damaging the environment so badly, expansion of wealth is what comes from industrialization, if it wasn’t we wouldn’t have such a big problem. If people could continue to grow economically without harming the environment the way that it is being harmed right now I feel like we would be; but it’s a choice between the two, abundance of money or the environment. This kind of brings me back to what Al Gore was saying in his film about the era of consequences of our actions…
tsung 7:38 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I believe it would be hard for China to find alternative ways for its growth. After seeing how successful the Western nations became, I am not surprised to find China following the same path. In a way, fossil fuels (Western Model of Developing) have proved successful and why bother looking for another path for development when the answer is in front of you? Although the focus must be on the decrease in carbon, finding another alternative for growth seems unlikely. Currently, China and Indian have become the focus of my scrutiny in terms of environmental impacts due to their rapid expansion, however, I don’t believe it is right to point figures at them (especially from the West). The Western nations expanded and their standard of living is significantly high, however, when China or Indian are expanding, they are not only faced with global distrust, but also criticism for their ways. Times have changed, however, realize that China and India are simply following what Western nations did so, would it be fair to tell them no? Although it’s not the best way of developing, however, we need to face reality and understand why they chose this path. Green technology is expensive and therefore, relying on fossil fuels is no surprise.
Although China is the world’s largest contributor to carbon emissions, we do see that they invest in new technology and require their factors to meet a certain level of environmental standards. China’s authoritarian government can be beneficial in terms of environmental policies. I say this because they are more effective and efficient in terms of implementation of policies and monitoring these policies. For example, the single child policy is not only here to control the population, it is also to ensure resources aren’t diminished. During the Beijing Olympics, we see the implementation where factors were required to shut down to ensure cleaner area in the city. These examples show how effective policy implementation can be in relations to the environment. We need to keep in mind that our society and nations are constructed to exploit the resources before us and once we use up our own we search in new lands.
lcoulthard 9:43 pm on March 1, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think that China’s growth pattern is fairly set-in-stone at this point. Their rural populations are being displaced for projects like the mega-dam. These farming populations then have little choice but to move into cities and work for low wages in factories, adding more fuel to China’s growth pattern. More factory laborers = more factory production and ultimately more emissions. On top of that, social conditions for many of these people are dismal. Admittedly they have policy and technology that is being implemented to help be more environmentally friendly, however with their vast population I believe their emissions will continue to rise until something drastic happens. Perhaps their air quality becomes so degraded that an event like one of the deadly London Fogs would happen and become enough of a situation to require policy change.
erikaw 12:36 am on March 2, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
As mentioned China must find a way to skip over the mistakes of our past. A way they could do this is focus on the development and utilization of modern and cleaner more sustainable energy and products. Although more expensive in the short run, if proper time and development is gone into this it should be much more influencial to their economy in the long run. Clearly the want and need is there for these kind of products, even though most markets focus on the old and dirty energy and production of the past. If China spent the time innovating new products, more developed nations may look to them for business. It benefits both China’s market and the well-being of their people and environment.
midara 12:57 am on March 2, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I definitely think there are many more sustainable ways for China to grow and develop; as many posts above have already mentioned, there are greener methods and more advanced technology than what Europe and North America have had in 18th century. However, what I have to add is that not every part of China is able to be greener while trying their best to catch up with the developing speed. I am not trying to say that China is developing herself in a correct and clean manner now, but for sure there are many restriction to be considered before doing so. For big cities like Shanghai or Beijing of course they are able to do so; but for smaller towns in some relatively poorer regions, such as Guizhao, in my point of view it is very hard and harsh to change their habit of burning coal for energy. I have been there before when I was travelling to the Silk Road, and it was a place with large coal reserve but relatively poor and small town. It is hard to use other energy source (maybe solar energy is possible, but solar panels are expensive you know) than coal. While China are still on its path of development, I believe more funds and capitals will be put on other projects because we already see the fruit of “modernity” in “Western” countries as well as Shanghai or Beijing.
But one thing that I guess will be helpful and relatively cheaper to attain a greener development pathway is educating the younger generation the importance of sustainability and eco-friendly. While swapping to a greener source of energy in mean time seems impossible, education at least should be started now to ensure a brighter future I guess.
kimzzzy 4:28 pm on March 4, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think there will need to be a change in its exporting and manufacturing industry. Such that policies should be set to reduce CO2 emission for factories/manufacturers and have penalties made for those who do not follow regulations. It could encourage growth and development in sectors such as hybrid car development and such technologies to help find solutions to pollution problems in the future.
kimzzzy 4:34 pm on March 4, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
It is also important to pay attention to the food industry. More and more farms are being changed to big farm owners usinig machines and fuel. This allows big corporations to take over all the local businesses and jobs. Also, big corportation in general produces products at large scales so it requires the use of mechanical energy whhich generates more pollution. This will lead to people in villages where they have their own businesses become jobless and flee to larger cities for urban jobs. At the same time, the investments may be largely funded by foreign markets so the profits are not fully being kept in their own country. China should prevent such from happening by preserving local businesses and the set up of big corporations and allowing its dominance in markets.
yitailiu 8:28 pm on March 4, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think that a major problem in China’s modernization towards Western standards is the issue of mass consumption. The high population density poses an enormous amount of stress on the land and the environment cannot sustain if large portions of people there adopt the Western style consumption habits. A difference in consumption pattern would significantly reduce the amount of resource and energy inputs. The use of alternative energy sources, such as sunlight and wind, would reduce the amount of global carbon emissions.
alyumam 12:32 am on March 5, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
This is an interesting question, but also a very challenging one. Like other people mention, I agree China is a country with the capacity for envisioning several alternative scenarios from Western ones.
An article that one of the members of our class posted above is really interesting. It talks about the different sectors China has invested and how clean energy is playing a fundamental role in this country.
At the same time, given the the size of the population this country has, and despite many people may argue this can lead to over consumption of resources and other related problems; in my opinion, the rise of the Chinese contemporary industrialization seems to be promising since many infrastructure hasn’t been build which allows to buy and build new equipment based on clean and sustainable technologies.
phoebe 12:57 am on March 5, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I find it unlikely that China will explore alternative scenerios to Western growth. At the moment, China seems most concerned with “catching up” with the West and quickly modernizing/industralizing their country. While this has been extremely successful, as others have mentioned it has produced a large amount of carbon emissions.
However, as others especially the U.S. are largely ignoring these problems in their own governments and continuing to value growth and cheap fossil fuels, I believe China will follow suit and ignore these problems in favour of continued growth for their nation. In order to convince China to pursue other green alternatives, the U.S. itself along with other industralized countries must show that they themselves are pursuing these choices and show a significant reduction in carbon emissions. With this pressure, China will likely agree to support green alternatives.
Danni 1:05 am on March 5, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
On one hand, I think China should continue the development and application of green technology, especially on the aspect of the source of carbon dioxide. The dramatically growth of the numbers of both private cars, and trucks should be gradually limited or should be altered by introducing the low energy consuming transportation methods. (i.e. hybrid or electric cars) This is very important due to the large population in China and their gradually increasing affordability. I noticed that there is a even/odd numbers of cars driving limit in Beijing, since there are too many cars, which stress out the traffic and increase air pollution as well. On the other hand, the manufacture quality control/assurance is another crucial issue in China too. Like the Melamine derivative, Cyromazine, contaminated milk issue in 2008 suggested the weakness in the quality control/assurance in the consequence of the pollution in China. In those cases, the product consumer, pediatric populations were the major victims in this issue. The serious critical review of the development and application of the stipulation or policy, regarding to manufacture food products is required ASAP.
eddietastic 5:16 pm on March 5, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
Looking at the main production of China, which is products that do not require preciseness and are made from raw materials, pollution is a main problem for factories. As a result, it is almost impossible for them to continue the pace which they are growing and become more green because they are relied upon to make goods which create a large amount of pollution.
hannahepperson 1:49 pm on March 6, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think something that has been sort of overlooked in this discussion is the potential for the very word “affluence” to be redefined and reimagined. It is my opinion that cultural innovators (philosophers, artists, poets, musicians, etc) are as important in this discussion as technological innovators. If we hope to shift the ways we understand affluence, success, ‘hipness’, modernity, belonging, meaning – there needs to be a lot more cross dialogue happening with the creative people who are implicit in shaping and creating ‘culture’ and the webs of meaning that are derived from whatever that culture is.
nytsuen 4:00 pm on March 8, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think that even though there are alternate ways to grow, China would most likely continue to carry on with the way they are growing now. Their main concern is to catch up with the West and how they’re expanding now and their carbon emissions is roughly the same as what happened to the West during the western industrialization. Obviously, their industrialization is affecting the environment today but it is a little unfair to limit their growth when the West during the industrialization period emitted as much as they pleased without thinking twice about the environment. China can implement growth by using green technology; however, with their main focus on mass production from raw materials…whatever is cheapest is best. Green technology, although beneficial, is extremely expensive. It isn’t even fully utilized in Western countries so why would China take the initiative to produce/buy green technology. With that said, technology has advanced since the industrialization period. With advancements, it also means it’s more efficient so China’s growth, although is “Western,” is still different from western growth during the industrialization.
congo96 1:00 pm on April 9, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
Yea one can imagine alternative scenarios and Im sure China can too but at the end of the day China is competing with the other developed countries for its piece of the pie and as long as its competing for its place in the market economy its in China’s best economical interest to play by the rules and be as economically productive and efficient as can be. If developed countries were more willing to share the big stage with a ll its benefits my making it easier for developing countries to become developed then developing countries could think about making decisions whose sole purpose is not just economic efficiency and productivity. But seeing as the developed countries want to stay at the top they won’t make it easier for developing countries to become their equal especially a country like China that has a very different political and social ideologies. It’s a power game everyones playing and eventually everybody loses..