linking policy and practice with available evidence.

What Went Right/Wrong

This week I ended up making some gains by trading in Soybeans. I had intended to analyze the substitutability trends for this week’s trade but I got really busy with classes and assignments. So, this week I only traded two contracts and went short on soybeans in the November contract. In total I won 900 dollars, whereas I should have won a lot more. This week again the trade sim delayed the processing of transaction and I was not able to enter the trade sooner. There were two reasons due to which I went short on soybeans this week: a stronger U.S. dollar and higher than expected soybean supplies. The U.S. dollar has been slowly gaining strength over the last few days and that has played a huge part in declining soybean prices. A new poll/ study ( I also saw this in the news) suggesting that the unemployment rate has gone down in U.S. and that more and more people are able to find jobs. This was indeed encouraging for the struggling economy and the effects of it were evident of how the market performed on Thursday and Friday. Secondly, there has been much hype about a possible increase in government estimates of Soybean supplies which has been driving the prices down, as well.

(1)    Nov. (S2X) – SHORT: Price In: 1536, Price Out: 1527, Gain/Loss: 450

(2)    Nov. (S2X) – SHORT: Price In: 1536, Price Out: 1527, Gain/Loss: 450

(3)    Equity (Last Week): 38436.84; Equity (This Week): 38885.09

References:

http://online.wsj.com/article/DN-CO-20121102-013263.html

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Corn-and-soy-markets-Pressured-by-Strong-Dollar–176978811.html?ref=811

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