Australian agriculture: finding my place.

This week I began my trading in a simulated futures market as part of one of my Masters subjects. I could not have anticipated how much I would enjoy it and look forward to researching and strategizing each day!

Six days ago, I had no previous experience and was totally daunted by the prospect of trading. I was venturing into a world quite foreign to me and it was scary! Trading commodity futures is risky and complex and I thank to the heavens that I am not trading with my money, or real money at that!

In this post I hope to explain my strategy for Week 1, my results and what I have learnt thus far.

————————–

My first lesson was to learn what a futures contract was (!). I learnt that it is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity at a future date, with the amount of the commodity and the price are fixed at the time of the agreement… Ok, I’m getting this, I thought to myself.

The second lesson was to understand the difference between long and short. It took me a little while longer, but it all made sense in the end once I realised you could sell something without having first bought anything!

Starting out, I knew that there were countless sources of information I could go to to start to begin to formulate my strategy, so rather than being completely overwhelmed, I started by focussing on two commodities (wheat and corn) and a few key sources of information including the USDA crop report and the US Federal Reserve decision. I wanted to use this week to learn how particular information affected markets in order to hopefully pre-empt market moves in following weeks.

————————–

The USDA Crop Report

Crop reports delivered monthly have a big impact on futures markets. I hoped to use the September USDA Crop Report as a learning experience to see how the news delivered affected prices and futures contracts.

The September Report outlined bigger than expected corn crop estimates with stronger yields. The corn market reacted poorly to this news with December corn falling from $15.75 to $4.5675/bushel. These represented four week lows to the futures contracts.

In regards to wheat, the USDA reports were also negative. The report raised the estimate for global wheat production to a record 708.89 million metric tonnes.  December wheat fell 11.50 cents to $6.4150 a bushel.

————————–

The US Federal Reserve 

Another big event this week was the US Federal Reserve Statement (at around 2pm on Wednesday). The announcement drives monetary policy around the world and has key effects depending on whether it is Hawkish (raise rates to curb inflation) or Dovish (keep rates low).

With some information garnered from Ariel, a US classmate, I held the prediction that lower rates in the US would continue. There was talk that the Federal Reserve would keep policy easy with Ben Bernanke in his final months as chairman of the US central bank.

————————–

My Strategy

Based on the drop in the futures markets in corn and wheat following with the USDA Crop Report and my prediction that the US Fed Reserve would not increase rates, I decided to buy long corn and wheat on the morning of the decision announcement, hoping for an increase in both futures commodities.

I decided to buy long December 2013 corn and buy long Wheat September 2014 wheat. I bought corn for the above reasons and also because there were murmurings of a trade deal developing with China. I decided to buy 2014 wheat as anticipating crop and yield so far out is incredibly difficult and an array of factors between here and there could drive up the futures price. Although I do not expect a large return on this wheat, a marginal one is expected.

Results 

The prediction about the US Federal Reserve Decision was spot on! Thanks Ariel! Commodity prices shot up with the US decision to keep interest rates near zero levels until 2014.

My portfolio return at one point was up +0.92%, which I was incredibly happy about. However, my ecstasy was short-lived! I should have sold off my positions when the market bounced back!

I finished the week -0.22% with my portfolio value at $99,779.32. 

————————–

Next week I hope to delve deeper into what the competitor situation is around the world (crop estimates, yield, weather), potential supply and demand of key exporting and importing countries and any trade agreements on the horizon. I can’t wait to delve further into this and make some more trades!

 A picture of home

 

 

 

This blog (my first ever!) has been set up as part of my Masters program to track my progress in a simulated futures market and (hopefully)  spread my insights about commodity price determination. I hope, however, to use this blog more broadly and as I know next to nothing about the aforementioned topic, my first post concentrates on something I know a little more about… Me!

Writing this first post may be of no interest to anyone else, however it will be a useful exercise for me in trying to make sense of why I am here and what I hope to achieve. So here it goes…

—————————————-

Two major events have shaped my 2013 so far… 1) My darling nephew was born and 2) I obtained a leave of absence from my job and moved across the world to Canada. I will avoid beginning my first blog with a gushing montage about how perfect, handsome, cheeky and gorgeous my nephew is… (but seriously though, he is just out-of-control loveable). Instead I was hoping to share my motives, expectations and anxieties relating to my decision to leave my home and friends to study abroad. For me, this year is more than just learning in the classroom, but one in which I hope to answer many questions that I have also set for myself.

I am writing this blog from the Northern Hemisphere. I can see snow on the distant mountains (even though we have just finished summer), I am getting accustomed to looking right rather than left before crossing the road and everyone says thank you to the bus driver before hoping off… Life on the whole is pretty grand in Vancouver.

Summer in Vancouver (UBC Campus)

—————————————-

I made the decision to move to Vancouver following my acceptance into the Masters of Food and Resource Economics program at UBC. The course works at the intersection of economics, policy and agribusiness, and was the course I searched low and high for a number of reasons.

I graduated from the University of Melbourne with combined Bachelor of Commerce/Bachelor of Arts (Political Science) Degrees in 2009. I have since worked at a global Professional Services Firm for three years in a Policy Consulting role. My worked involved policy design, analysis and evaluation for the Victorian State Government, which I enjoyed immensely. However I was, and continue to this day, to be a generalist. I hope to change this. Although I see the value in knowing a little about a lot of things, more importantly I see the huge potential to be gained by experts working together in multidisciplinary teams to confront the problems besetting us.

Before moving to the city, I was born and raised on a mixed farming enterprise in the Southern Riverina of NSW, Australia. My father is a huge inspiration to me and together with my mum, they have battled droughts, floods and fires to run a successful farming operation. Although I grew up in this environment and maintain a strong interest, I do not feel I know enough about the day-to-day operations. This year my mind is open to absorbing and learning as much as possible about the food and agricultural industry, as well as to learn the appropriate tools and methodologies in order to make the next step in my career and life more generally.

‘Koombahla’ post-harvest (Summer 2013)

—————————————-

I am the first to admit I have a lot to learn before I can enter the industry and make an insightful and meaningful contribution. I hope that as I go through the year that I will start to understand where I can contribute most effectively in the future within the food and agricultural industry.

Is agriculture the next boom industry for Australia? Will we really be the ‘food bowl‘ for Asia? Such questions are flying around with increasing ferocity and often answered without sufficient or informed analysis. I admit there are huge opportunities that are on our doorstep, but there are an equal number of threats and constraints that stand in the way. Although we have always prided ourselves on being the ‘lucky country’, riding on the sheep’s back to the mining boom,  the future is not set on some sort of default ‘lucky lock’.

I was told this year at a Rural Councils Conference in Victoria that in this century we will witness the ‘death of family farms in Australia’. Whether or not I will ever be a primary producer is unknown, but if I am somehow able to be a part of the next generation of people on the land who is able to adapt to changing conditions and continue the legacy of rural Australia, then I would be honoured. What form my contribution will take is yet to be determined and I have much to think about!

—————————————-

 

Wow, this post got out of hand!

In the future, this blog will be primarily used for relaying information learnt in my course, particularly in 501 Commodity Markets & Price Analysis where I will be involved in trading futures online.

My next blog will introduce this concept (very poorly and most likely briefly) as I really know very little about trading (very little = zero).

Thanks for reading,

Airlie

 ‘Peggie’: Dad’s newest student (2013)