Well guys, it was really fun blogging about all of this stuff, but I suppose that this can be our last one as we were told we could start to wind it all down. The past week really got me disheartened in the whole system so I don’t really feel like I should bother. I got hit with tons of problems with the system because of soybeans taking the wrong price. I suppose I will be experimenting on some different things bit by bit. I will continue to make comments on blogs and keep up with stuff on twitter, but until the end of the course, my blogs will be much more sporadic.

I guess I should talk about what “theoretically” went right for me. I did technically lose a significant amount of money, but it was almost entirely due to the system continuing to take the wrong price on soybeans. However, I did “make” money from going short on soybeans. I mentioned in my presentation that on the weekly charts for soybeans they were showing a head and shoulders pattern so I had triggers set at 1500 (the support level) to go short if it broke through that point. Once it did, prices took a freefall and have fallen approximately 75 points as of Sunday. I did forget to mention in the presentation that it was Victor who point it out. TOTALLY FORGOT TO SAY THAT AND I SHOULD’VE, SORRY!

I may still experiment on corn for a little while. I also mentioned in class how I was uncertain as to whether it was a downward triangle or rectangle that I was seeing and right now I’m still not sure and have continued to trade it as a continuation pattern rectangle. Maybe there might be some other signals in the future.

On another note, if anyone is reading this, do you happen to know any other sites where we can practice our trading in commodities futures? Also, are any of you familiar with some good discount brokers?

Well, the whole head and shoulders that I saw coming seemingly has ended. However, there is another one that appears to be out there that I am more than willing to start trading. Victor pointed this one out to me a while ago, but I felt that it was much more of a long term trend than a short term one. So, even though I have made large losses in my equity balance recently, I need to be long term thinking on this one. Looking at the weekly charts of soybeans:

Courtesy: CME Group

I’m seeing a bit of a head and shoulders, which should be projecting up to the 1600 range. As it hits to that point, it looks like it will take a huge fall. There looks to be a bit of a support level at about 1500. So, if it breaks below that point, go short and get ready for a tumble.

So I’ll just quickly shoot out a  resource that I found recently dealing with technical analysis. It’s a great book that you can read, which is fairly comprehensive. I have just recently started reading it, but am nowhere near finished and have recently had to return it back to the library. I strongly suggest you check it out.

http://www.amazon.ca/Technical-Analysis-Complete-Financial-Technicians/dp/0131531131/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1352080955&sr=8-1

Disclaimer: This will be my least professional blog entry ever.

There are always going to be so called experts who often give their opinion on everything. Former football players will sit in front of the cameras and say who is going to win on Sunday according to their own analysis. There are often times that these analysts will agree completely. There’s going to be the armchair analysts saying there’s NO WAY the Patriots can lose to Peyton’s little brother. I firmly believe that the collective mind is ignorant of the future for many reasons. However, I do find that advice is always useful and I received two pieces of it recently that I should have listened to.

A few weeks ago, Brady had said that he tried day trading and took a big hit because of the lag of the system. I tried to have a go at it myself on Monday and Tuesday. Want to see what happened?

Completely swung and missed on almost every one. -3000. That’s ok, I’m not mad.

I decided to read Mark’s blog and he mentioned how it would be “ungentlemanly” to take advantage of prices with the Sandy taking out the East coast and knocking out many traders from the market. I on the other hand felt that I should pounce on the opportunity if I find one, regardless of the circumstances. Then I look at the charts, and see my head and shoulders that I’ve been predicting FOREVER. Then, it finally hits, goes up about 20+. Great, I close two of my 4 positions. Was in at 1539, out at about 1560. Yet this is what I see on my trading log:

1527? Are you serious? At the point of me closing the trade, prices were not sub 1530 for weeks. Look at the chart!

I look at the price that we’re seeing on the game and saw this at the time:

Um, ok, sure, lets set the price 25 points below the actual. -1200 more instead of plus 1200 so now at ~-4200. So now I’m officially frustrated. Ok trading game, maybe you’ll adjust later so I’ll just add two more contracts. Awesome! Jumps up to 1560. I figure, hey, I’m about to make back my losses. Maybe, I’ll just set a limit trade just in case things go south. And south they went. Ends up I messed up on setting the limit trade properly again. Prices collapsed down to sub 1520s and the limit did not trigger. So here I sit, with my balance at 39992.79. Dropping over 8000 and in the red by about a Big Mac meal.

So in the end. I really should have taken their advice. Do not day trade with this system (I know I should’ve have made gains but the system did not agree with me). Do not mess with karma, be a gentleman and do not profiteer when others are not able to compete adequately with you. In conclusion, individual advice from someone you can trust really can be better than the collective.

P.S: Dear trading game,

I will be back.

Cheers!