Now, at the midway point of the game, I am happy to report that I am +~7500. I have made a profit on 4/5 weeks. I have also won on 12/21 unique trades (basically not counting multiple contracts, but still counting the two times that I messed up with limit orders. So I am definitely staying consistent, which is really what I wanted from this trading game. I have also established some slight proficiency with technical analysis, which could only be bettered with a faster to react system. So now, my goal is set at making a final profit of $13000, which would mean just about a profit of $1000 per week. I also want to do what I can to make a profit every week and also gain on over 60% of my trades.

How am I going to do that this week you might ask? Do what I’ve been doing for a while: Rolling in the wheat. It hit its high of 880 on Friday and I firmly believe that it will start its drop off within the next two to three days. At the worst, I believe that it goes as high as 895, the previous peak in mid October. I am shorting right now at about 875 (depending what price the system puts my trade at). I then see it dropping to approximately 840 by the end of this week to approximately the beginning of next.

Courtesy: CME Group

The major threat to all of this is of course the long rumoured export ban by Russia on their wheat. The little pop of prices on Friday were strongly based upon the export ban by the Ukraine. This export ban would in a sense lower supply and thus increase prices. This is exactly what happened and is a threat to my shorting of wheat in the present time. With the December delivery about to approach, I do believe that we will see funds selling off some of their positions causing the price to drop off. This is what occurred with soybeans early this month and I feel will be the reasoning behind the fall that the charts are displaying. We will see how this turns out.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E8LJ3RP20121019