Scottish independence and its potential effect on Europe
The right to self-determination of Scotland is a key topic that has been discussed across the globe and as an Englishman I feel that it would be an appropriate topic to discuss within this blog. As the results of the vote have shown Scotland has voted to stay as part of the United Kingdom with 55% of share of the vote. The fallout however of this vote and this movement is beyond just the borders of the United Kingdom, the real fallout is the creation of separatist precedent within Western Europe that may lead to the emergence or revitalization of separatist movements within many regions and civil unrest. These regions include Catalonia in Spain, the Basque country that straddles the France – Spain border as well as Wallonia and Flanders in Belgium to name just a few. In this blog my aim is to argue that whilst the referendum on Scottish independence is a great representation of democracy in action, the precedent set however could cause increase tribalisation in Europe and raise questions for many regions that have strong regional identities.
The Basque country and Catalonia were brought into Spain through a processes of integration similar to that of Scotland into the UK and both regions still have their own languages and a staunch pride in their cultures respectively. Spain however, has ardently denied Catalonia[1] and the Basques Country’s right to self-determination that has resulted in groups such ETA considered to be a terrorist organisation emerging. Whilst in Catalonia a date has been set for a vote for independence but this has been met by strong criticism from the president of Spain who declared that the vote would be unconstitutional.
With the limited willingness of Spanish officials to allow the right to self-determination of the regions within Spain, we may see an emergence of more dangerous situations of independence. Furthermore the Basque parliament has tried to get a referendum on independence for the last 15 years[2]. So far both regions have had their right to self-determination revoked by the Madrid government, in the past this has led to terrorist groups such as ETA.
With the regions seeing Scotland having a democratic say and the continual denial by Spanish authorities for these regions to have a similar say, we could see an increasing amount of hostility from these two regions and an internal threat to security in Spain. With this threat also combined with the struggling economic issues in Spain with 50% youth unemployment it could lead to more radical demands for independence that could weaken the Spanish state further.
In Belgium on the other hand the country is divided between a rich Dutch speaking north whilst the south is poor, French speaking region known as Wallonia. The two regions and their divergence have had political effects resulting in the failure of the Belgium government for 540 days that resulted in a divulging of powers. The lack of government due to nationwide disagreements highlights the fragile nature of the country and how regional identity as in Scotland could lead to process of independence, that to an extent in Belgium has already led to government failure.
The various regions of Europe in seeing that Scotland has been able to democratically vote on independence may lead to emerging pro regional movements that could cause security issues to the larger nations themselves. This fear of states breaking up has particularly effected Spain and meant that the Spanish leadership were the most virulent European nation other than the UK to oppose Scottish independence. I believe that regions should have the right to hold votes on self-determination, however when regions have this denied to them it could lead to the emergence of radicalization of certain groups within the society and an increase in civil unrest.
[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29274849
[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28365453
picture sourced from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20345073