After 4 weeks futures trading ,I ‘m glad to see that my pace of losing money is getting more and  more slowly. I also find if I do not put a lot of energy in it ,it’s really hard to earn ….for me …till now.

Portfolio

Trades

This week I go short for soybeans firstly not because soybeans always have huge changes in it’s price , also because it has good news about its harvest. Weather dents Brazil hopes in corn ,but not for soybeans. Soybeans harvest was forecasted to be 87.6m-89.7m tons, a little higher than the range of 84.7m-89.9m tons made in last month’s initial projections. I thought larger supply will drive the price down. Real prices confirmed my thoughts while I did not earn something because of a stop price, I will talk that later.

I also go short for wheat this week because I think wheat had boomed up for a long time and I predicted it will go down a little bit last week . while it did not go down but not go up for too much.

Important news

EPA says nothing final on ethanol blend; industry group cries foul.

Environmental Protection Agency on Friday sought to calm a furor over its apparent proposal to reduce ethanol use in gasoline next year, saying that no final decisions had been made about the contentious mandate.  EPA documents that showed the agency proposing an unexpected drop in the amount of corn-based ethanol that would be required for blending next year. I think it’s a really important news that will influences many prices of commodities. Firstly , corn plated area will be impact hugely .However the futures price trend will be really vague because it depends on many factors .What kind of commodity will be the substitute of those corns in certain agricultural area. When the supply of biofuel used corns decline, the demand of such corns actually decline either.  It’s really hard to say how will prices of commodities will go.

Lessons

1.Be careful of stop prices

As you can see, I predicted price correctly about soybeans while I did not earn one dollar. Because I’m really afraid of losing , so I set the stop price just 0.03 differences between the original one. And the system just closed my position when market has regular ,non-trend fluctuations. I used to make same fault when trying hedging  last week. So I guess It’s not a hard lesson ,but hard to really learn and act it.

2.Take it easy with fake trades and fake money , take advantage of chances to lose……..

Even though I lost so much and tell myself that just try to do more trades as soon as possible  because it’s all fake! I still think too much when I doing it. I should tell myself : hey , you won’t earn and won’t be rich after one night or several weeks , just be brave to lose then get lessons.

Plus, I love thanksgiving’s long weekend……sunny day ~~~