This week I only did only 2 trades. But there is something to tell

Trade

Buy November 13 soybeans, sell Jan 14 soybeans.

Portfolio  of my trade

Thoughts

1. As you can see, I did not earn some money generally. Differ from last time I try this stratagie(loss some money). The reason might be  the discrepancy of stop price and the open position price is too large . That reminds me to carefully calculate the stop price when setting it. Some times I just feel it should be a little bit more or less than my opening position price but now, I feel that I cannot be such unprofessional or I lose money.
2. This experience let me think the very purpose of “hedge”. Just like what I learned in 501, it’s a strategy to limit loss because traders (farmers, merchants) are unsure about market trend. So if it is purpose, than apparently I success this time. That reality let me feel that maybe “hedge ” is really not for fresh speculators like me . My purpose is not delivery my commodity and unsure my hard year work in field not just wasting of time, my purpose is earning money even I have nothing physical to provide for the real world.

Technical analysis

1. Bar chart

it’s actually the same as candle chart because it provides same information as candle charts.But it’s not friendly as candle .for sometimes you cannot easily get its trend(going up or down) at the first sight.

1. Some technical data

5,20,50… Moving average(Soybeans Nov13) . I think this three numbers or lines are really useful for people who have limited time and knowledge about this market,like us.Well to be honest I think such people shouldn’t show in the market but…we have to and it’s really good chance to learn.

Basically you can use the most simple way to predict prices in future period. Apparently 5 MA is moving faster than other 2. So if I am a really short term trader of several days, I would choose 5 MA to help me making decisions.For example,for Nov 13 soybeans, it really struggled at the end , longers and shorter are fighting with each other because the body of  candles are really small. However the blue 5 MA line predicted a rise in next period for me .So I might still hold my long soybeans contract. It ‘s nothing about some “physical ” news related real world production or weather , it’s all about technical so I think I should be careful.

2.I find it’s really funny that some website will give you simple suggestions about how you behave in a market. Such as follows, should I really believe, absolutely no. Could I do better on technical analysis than them, absolutely no ! I think it’s function is give you beliefs when you make a same decision as it does. The website is  Barchart .

Enjoy the weekend ~