This week I only trade once in soybeans, luckily, I earned some, not much ,however for me it’s not a bad ending.
Trading &Portfolio
Learned
As you can see, I shorted soybeans and the system executed a limit price for me. Actually which help me earn is not very accurate and confident technical analysis, it’s the GTD limit strategy. There are two kinds of “stop” and “limit” ways. One is GTD, which means the system can only keep your limit or stop order is that specific trading day. Another is GTC. GTC way can keep your “limit” and “stop” orders continuously until you cancel them. I think GTC order is really important for me because I am pretty sure I’m a not good predictor especially in a short term. I don’t know whether the price will reach the limit or stop points in a day and I ‘m pretty sure that I cannot change my limit or stop points just at the beginning at next trading day. So GTC order is really good thing for “busy” or “lazy” people who couldn’t adjust their strategy as soon as possible.
Moreover, I use moving average lines to forecast the soybeans price. Actually it’s really useful, five minutes moving average told me that the price would go down. I shorted it and succeed.But at the end of this week ,moving average forecast tells a going up trend ,maybe I should go long in the future.
Information also helped me this week.News told me that Brazil’s export will rise which will leads me to get the conclusion of rising supply and bearish of price. Basically the US Department of Agriculture’s Brasilia bureau pegged at a record 45.0m tonnes its forecast for the South American country’s soybean exports in 2013-14.The forecast – an increase of 2.5m tonnes year on year, according to the bureau – is 2.0m tonnes higher than the official US Department of Agriculture estimate. That’s why I shorted it and apparently this piece of news gives me a correct indication.
Summarize of six weeks
- Do not trade too much when you are completely fresh this field.
- It’s not like FX which I can trade almost anytime, I only trade in weekdays during specific hours. Time is definitely important for futures trading.
- Information is really important , but also really unreliable if I just considered some piece of news as “information”
- Be careful to use “stop”& “limit” orders, which means you cannot be too ambitious.
- Hedge is not suitable for speculators like me. Because my goal is not controlling my loss, it is earning money even I do not have physical commodities.
- GTC stop & limit orders are a lot sweeter than GTD stop & limit orders.
It’s the last week of this game but for sure it’s not a last week for my futures studying and maybe there will more blogs in the future but that depends !
Anyway I might still have a demo account and practice in this market, it’s a really good learning process.