By using GIS and mapping out the soil capability and the future climatic conditions, which act as indicators for crop growth in agriculture, we were able to determine how agricultural land reserves in the Okanagan will be affected by climate change, in terms of agricultural productivity.
Future climate change predictions have indicated an increase in annual growing degree days, frost free days and annual mean precipitation from the current climate to 2055. Resulting in the length of the growing season in the Okanagan, to increase.
The Okanagan region has a limited amount of areas which have a high soil capability, all of which is situated in the agricultural land reserves. The soil capability identifies areas of the Okanagan which is suitable and has the potential for high agricultural capability.
Where as the climatic conditions indicate areas not only of improving agricultural capability but also areas which are climatically suitable for specific types of crops.
For example, the grape and melons, which are currently grown in areas of the Okanagan, are limited by climate. With the predicted increase in the growing season, the area suitable to grow grapes and melons will expand and climate will become less of a limiting factor.
From our analysis and review of literature, we can see that climate change is predicted to have a positive impact on the agriculture in the Okanagan region. An increased growing season will reduce limitations on crops able to be grown in the region, increasing the agricultural productivity. The region already grows a wide variety of crops, but with improvements in climate, the climate will be less of a limiting factor and improve productivity, particularly of the following crops (Roussin, 2014):
- Melons
- Hops
- Grapes
- Berries
- Tree fruits – apples, cherries, peaches, apricots, pears, plums
- Types of vegetables which require warmer weather (e.g. tomatoes)
Soil capability will limit the agricultural area, but appropriate management strategies can improve the soil to the point where certain crops may be able to grow. Irrigation and stone removal can help to increase water holding capacity and improve the soil structure and nutrient level of soils in classes 4 and 5. With these improvements, crops such as tree fruits, grapes and certain types of field and forage crops (e.g. alfalfa and potatoes) would be viable crops for areas of soil class 4 and 5 (Environment Canada, 1972).
Photo: Agricultural land in Kelowna, Okanagan
The combination of the improving climate and careful soil management strategies can improve the agricultural productivity of the Okanagan region, and can be applied to other areas of British Columbia. This potential for increased food production, can maintain a level of food security in British Columbia which will be threatened by the effects of climate change on other areas of the world, which BC currently relies on for importing certain food.
A number of actions should be considered in order to improve BC’s food security and therefore avoid a number of problems, including fluctuating food prices:
- Encourage consumers to buy locally produced food, promoting local agriculture.
- Enhance local food systems through incentives and policies (Ostry et al, 2011).
- Increase food production area through site-specific soil management plans.
- Ensure equal access to food, especially to those more vulnerable to fluctuating food prices (Ostry et al, 2011).
However, there are a number of other factors which need to be investigated further to get a wider picture of the effects of climate change in the future. Not only will climate change effect temperature and precipitation, but also the occurrence of pests and diseases, frequency of precipitation and occurrence of natural disturbances, such as wild fires and flooding. All of which can have a negative impact on the agricultural productivity.
Further investigation should also be done on specific crop types, their optimum growing conditions and develop site specific plans to facilitate their production. Current land use for crops and other agricultural practices, especially in ALR areas, needs to be surveyed in detail. For appropriate management plans to be created, current information needs to be available on current practices in order to properly manage and plan agricultural areas to maximise productivity, now and in the future.
Overall, from our analysis and review of literature, we can see that agricultural land reserves have a growing potential for increased productivity with an increased growing season, due to climate change. Careful management plans to improve soils in a lower capability class can improve productivity and increase the area available. This, combined with a number of policy and government strategies, can help towards reducing British Columbia’s reliability on imported food and increase its food security with the uncertainty of the future climate.