The above time series of my portfolio performance says it all. This past week of trading was clearly my worst week of trading yet. My complaining over my earlier losses of 4-5% were nothing compared to the whopping -19% I am currently sitting at.
I was relatively inactive in trading this week. My tactic was simples I was to keep my 13 short positions in wheat as I was confident the high price of wheat that was seen last week were not sustainable. Unfortunately I was wrong, wheat prices continued to rise until Wednesday evening. Luckily, they have started to lose some value. Hopefully I can gain back these losses by the end of next week and finish our trading game without having lost almost 20% of my starting cash value!
Reading through the other blogs it is clear technical analysis is the superior tactic when it comes to speculating in the commodity futures market, which I think may actually explain why I would never make a good speculator. I decided to pursue a Master’s in Food and Resource economics because of how tangible the agriculture industry is. Predicting the future price of food based on “double shoulders” and “shooting stars” is not something of interest to me. That being said it is clear that tangible events, such as supply shortages are clearly reflected in the futures market, demonstrating the vital role future markets play in many industries in which futures are traded.