The Government of Ontario is making steps towards the legalization of cannabis. Legislation was introduced back in April by the federal government with the goal of regulating recreational marijuana by July 1, 2018. However, this task is being left up to the individual provinces to develop plans and systems to implement. Ontario is taking a government controlled approach. By 2020, they plan to own 150 pot shops that will be run by the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO). In this plan, Ontario plans to make all illicit and non-government controlled marijuana stores illegal and shut them down; creating a monopoly. These stores will be similar to liquor stores and will only sell to those 19 and above. The main question is: will this be able to eliminate black-market sales of cannabis?
One factor that will come into play is the price of the marijuana sold at these government controlled stores. If it is not lower or on par with the black-market price, then black-market sales will not drastically change. Having a competitive price will not only lower the sales within the black-market, but it will also result in more sales in the LCBO shops. However, the legalization of pot is not expected to be a huge income for the government. This is due to pricing and the black-market. It is expected that the black-market will lower prices to compete with these government operated dispensaries. Another point of consideration is the possibility of taxing the sales of cannabis. This is expected to bring an annual tax revenue of $130 to $180 million. This may seem like a large amount of tax revenue; however, it is only a tenth of a percent of the provincial budget[1].
From the perspective of a business, one must investigate into the profitability of creating the government controlled marijuana dispensaries. Colorado can be used as a comparison to determine the expected sales of pot in Ontario. According to a senior economist from CIBC World Markets, it is estimated that there is a $10 billion demand for legal cannabis. Ontario is projected to receive $2.1 to $2.3 billion in retail sales[2]. Controlling a monopoly will make it easier for the government to gain profit as there will be no more cannabis shops and the only competitor will be the black-market. Ontario will also be making wholesale deals with the suppliers allowing them to mark up the price, while remaining competitive. This in combination with a tax on legal marijuana will bring a profit. The legalization of pot in Canada, more specifically Ontario, is bound to eliminate parts of the black-market, while bringing another form of income to the government.
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[1] http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/marijuana-ontario-price-market-sales-1.4298311
[2] http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/marijuana-ontario-price-market-sales-1.4298311
http://pot.tv/video/2017/06/06/canadian-parliament-debates-cannabis-legalization/ (Image)