This first article in The New Republic, talks about a fourth wave of democratization in the Middle East. One factor identified for the democratization process is that “democracy enjoys broad popular support in the Middle East”. In his opinion, their is a powerful ideology behind the uprising. To support his argument he uses mainly two sources:
1) The Casablanca Call for Democracy and Human Rights, that was approved two months before the start of the uprising by 2,200 Arab intelectualls
2) World Values Survey and other opinion polls conducted over the last past decade in Algeria, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Palestine and Kuwait. They show that between 80 and 90 percent of the people want their countries to be ruled by democratic systems.
I think that these evidences are definitely a sign that there is a strong popular support for democracy, however they do not tell us why the uprising happened at that moment and not anytime during the last decade. I don’t think that the Casablanca Call, signed only by “intellectuals” could have had enough power to push the people in the streets.
The second factor he mentions, is “the vulnerability of autocratic regimes caused by the rapid growth of new communications technologies and social network”. The evidences here are events and not statistics.
1) Without the Internet, the corruption of Ben Ali and his cronies would not have inflamed public opinion the way it did, leading to the sudden eruption of outrage following the death of Mohamed Bouazizi.
2) And before the Internet, the murder in Alexandria by two police officers of Khaled Sa’id, a young blogger who had posted a video of them sharing the spoils of a drug bust, would have received little attention. But in this new age a half-million Egyptians joined the “We Are All Khaled Sa’id” Facebook page, and it was this page that initiated the January 25 revolution.
In his opinion social networks and internet have been key factors. He even directly says that the facebook page “initiated the January 25 revolution”. The evidence is relatively weak again. I think that it is undeniable that it played an important role, as a tool to organize the movement, but it does not make it a “cause” of the revolution.
This second article, argues against the first one and the role of social media. “To suggest that they are is to ignore what fueled popular anger in the first place: pervasive government corruption and repression, chronic unemployment (especially among the educated young), economic hopelessness and rising food prices.”
The author explicitly mentions 5 factors that explain the uprising but he provides no evidence to support his argument. His article explains mainly why it was not the social media that was the cause of the protests. Therefore, even if his arguments are convincing they do not provide any explanation for why the popular protests happened.