The Eternal question: dichotomous or not dichotomous?

I was being very naive thinking that the problem between a dichotomous and gradated visions of democracy was “solved”. By reading ACLP (Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, and Preworksi) and Reich I remembered how convincing both sides can be. I felt like a customer having to choose between two very-well advertised products.

ACLP are clearly in favor of a dichotomous measure of democracy, even if does not prevent them afterwards to qualify in more details both democracies and authoritarian regimes. According to them, “one cannot be half-democratic: there is a natural zero point” (21). Their main argument is that “unless offices are contested, they should bot be considered democratic” (21). Furthermore, they argue that intermediate categories exist only because the measurements are not good enough. It is their choice to have a system that generates “larger errors but fewer of them”(22).

In my opinion, the error of saying that a country is democratic when it is not and vice versa is pretty problematic!

On the opposite side of the spectrum we have Reich, who is clearly against a dichotomous measure of democracy. He argues that such a measure is not appropriate, even more in ‘third wave’ transitions, where “semi-democracies have been a common outcome of regime change” (2). Therefore he argues in favor of the ‘Political Regime Change dataset’ (PRC) that includes the category of semi-democracy.

Reich compares the PRC and the ACLP and concludes that only 25% of the transitions from democracy to autocracy are coded identically in both dataset. This is a powerful sign that clarifications need to be made. Again I think that labeling a country as an autocracy when it is not completely one and as a democracy when it is not fully one is a major problem because it weakens the meanings of those two concepts.

Having studied Latin America last term I would be in favor of Reich because not only most Latin American countries often fall into the semi-democratic category :

“A regime in which a substantial degree of political competition and freedom exist, but where the effective power of elected officials is so limited, or political party competition is so restricted, or the freedom and fairness of elections are so compromised that electoral outcomes, while competitive, still deviate significantly from popular preferences; and/or civil and political liberties are so limited that some political orientations and interests are unable to organize and express themselves.” (7)

But also because he emphasizes the necessity of going beyond elections as indicators of regime type, which I continue to think is essential.

However, I admit that there is a point made by ACLP that I need to think further and it is the assertion that having a minimalist definition of democracy allows to “examine empirically, rather than decide by definition, whether the repeated holding of contested elections is associated with other features at times attributed to democracy: social and economic equality, control by citizens overs politicians, effective exercise of political rights, widespread participation, or freedom from arbitrary violence”(20).

Does a broader definition of democracy prevent to examine empirically those causal relations? I guess if we have a transparent and precise data set we can still examine those correlations even if they are seen as being necessary ones to label a country as a democracy. But I have to think about it more… tell me what you think!

Is your blog popular?

As we are writing blogs I thought it could be interesting to look at how we measure website’s popularity. I did not imagine that it actually existed a lot of different ways to measure how popular a website or a blog is. I was being pretty naive because when I think about it now it is the core of business on the internet today. Measuring how many visitors or viewers a website has help measure the value of that website and the money that can be paid by advertisers.

Only on this website, they list 15 ways of measuring popularity!

The most popular “traffic ranking” today is called Alexa .

They do pretty interesting stats like measuring the number of people affected by the Internet Blackout in Egypt.

In order to measure the popularity of a website they measure what they call the Traffic rank:

What is Traffic Rank?

The traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from millions of Alexa Toolbar users and data obtained from other, diverse traffic data sources, and is a combined measure of page views and users (reach). As a first step, Alexa computes the reach and number of page views for all sites on the Web on a daily basis. The main Alexa traffic rank is based on a value derived from these two quantities averaged over time (so that the rank of a site reflects both the number of users who visit that site as well as the number of pages on the site viewed by those users). The three-month change is determined by comparing the site’s current rank with its rank from three months ago. For example, on July 1, the three-month change would show the difference between the rank based on traffic during the first quarter of the year and the rank based on traffic during the second quarter.

Their method seems pretty good but there is a major bias as it measures only the traffic of people having the Alexa toolbar. However, they explain that they correct for potential biases like that one.

Another way of measuring a website popularity can be to measure how many comments it has. However, this is not very reliable as we can assume that most of the people have a “passive” behavior and view the website without writing anything. Furthermore, depending on the nature of the website, comments are not a relevant way to measure the number of viewers. Same with subscribers, someone can subscribed to a blog and never read it or read it everyday without being subscribed.

Even though it does not really measures what we want, so it is not really “valid”, it can measure something else, which is the interactivity of a website, or a blog, which a normal traffic ranking probably does not distinguish. This can be very interesting as well!

Is Democracy contagious?

Tunisia, Egypt, and now Yemen. Is democracy contagious?

Victoria Clark examines “Why Yemen won’t fall” in an opinion-piece of the New York Times.

It is very interesting to see how what happens in neighbor countries can change the perception of what becomes possible for the people. Even more with the spread of information today, one country can  change “the rules of the game” for a whole region. In Yemen the president ended up making  political concessions that he would never have made without the events in Egypt and Tunisia.

However, it would be interesting to see in the long term what those different “revolutions” become. Depending on how the negotiations are made between the different groups, and what will be the role of the military, the spectrum of possibilities for political regimes will be very broad. Therefore I would say that revolution might be contagious but we cannot say yet if democracy will be too.

Choose a region!

I decided to choose “South America Sur” because my mother comes from Argentina, I’ve been traveling in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay and I have a special interest for this region. I also had a very interesting course last term taught by Maxwell Cameron about Democracy in Latin America and therefore I already have some background knowledges about the region, which I think can help me assess the measurements.

Principles for Measurement: getting into the details of pragmatism

While Herrera and Kapur insist on how to improve the quality of the data by acknowledging biases, Adcock and Collier focus on measurement validity.

Both articles are very useful in order to improve the quality of measures and they both give advices on how to deal with the imperfection of different methods.

After debating about the definition of democracy I found very useful the distinction made by Adcock and Collier between validity and validation. They encourage the scholars to distinguish between the conceptual concern and the concern about measurement. First, is the definition of  democracy we chose to create the indicator (the systematized concept) coherent with the broader concept of democracy (the background concept)? Second, is the indicator accurately measuring what we defined as democracy for the purpose of that research?

In the jungle of  definitions this distinction allows the scholar to locate more precisely where the problem is and therefore make it easier for them to solve it. Furthermore, they explain in a (not always) clear purpose the different ways of evaluating the quality of the measures. Those types are intertwined and constituted a unified conception of measurement validity.

(1) The Content Validation, which is what we usually learn as being “validity”: is the indicator actually measuring what we want?

(2) Convergent/Discriminant Validation:  Are other similar indicators giving the same results? Does our indicator give different results if we measure something different?

(3) Nomological/ Construct Validation: Once we have a measure, if we take already existing valid hypothesis, do they confirm our own results?

As in the rest of the article they always assess the problems, limits and concerns around the different methods.

Finally, one issue I was skeptic about when reading their previous article (pragmatic approach) was when they advised to “compare regimes according to whether they have achieved full democratization in relation to the norms of the relevant time period” (552). However, after reading this article and seeing more concretely how this can be done through the tools named “context-specific domains of observation”, “context -specific indicators” and “adjusted common indicators” I am more convinced by this possibility.  Moreover, because they acknowledge the dangers of doing so and advise to carefully justify it. In a world where we want to compare democracies I think that it is very important to find a good balance between being conscious about the limits of comparisons and completely avoiding to do some. Because comparisons are the roots for more general laws we need them and their article is a good start to surpass the “recurring tension between particularizing and universalizing”(534).

“What is democracy, anyway?”

If I had to describe democracy to someone I care about but who has no background in political science I would probably try to simplify the complexity of the debate (so that he/she still wants to talk to me after that discussion). It would probably look like this:

– “What is democracy, anyway?”

– Well, there is no single definition of democracy. It depends who defines it : a politician, a journalist, a lawyer, an economist, a social scientist, a philosopher, a citizen from Canada, a  citizen from Iran, or a political scientist, etc. And it also depends what is the context of the definition, which epoch, which region and why you are defining it: to decide what the institutions should look like, to have a deep philosophical debate, to judge if you consider something democratic, to measure how democratic a country or an institution is, etc.

– What?! But there must be some common definition because everyone talks about it all the time! It’s common sense! Some countries are democratic and some others are not!

– I’m going to answer all those very important questions you just mentioned, but step by step, please don’t run away. However, I have to warn you that this is my take on the issue and not a universal truth.

First, there are some minimal conditions for something to be described as democratic but not everyone agrees on what that is. I personally have a very demanding vision of democracy. It means that I don’t think that democracy is only about how having free and fair elections. By the way, by free and fair I mean that there is an open competition and that the decision is taken by a majority. So, legitimate elections is certainly a necessary condition but not a sufficient one. Once the government ( which can be a president, or a parliament, or a group of people) is elected, I think that there should be a written contract about what this government is allowed to do or not. Same for the legislative power, there needs to be some limitations. Usually those limitations are written in the constitution. That’s what we call checks and balances. When different bodies of the power control each other. But it is also important that nobody else control them, neither an external power, like another country, nor the military. To summarize, not only must the bodies be democratically elected but also must they govern in a democratic fashion. Furthermore, they should be held accountable for what they are doing in order to remain in office. So it also entails regular elections.

Secondly, democracy is not only about the political regime and the way the rulers are elected. It is also about people and their individual rights. Do you think a country is democratic if you are not treated equally by the judge in a trial? Or do you think a country is democratic if you are not free to say what you think? I don’t think so, I think everything is intertwined. If there is no freedom of expression how can we be sure that a segment of the population is not excluded from the pursuit of political power? Furthermore, in a system that lets the majority decided there should be some way to protect the minority. Some inalienable rights that nobody can take away in any case. They are the substance of democracy.

– So I guess it seems pretty hard to have a democracy for you?

– You guess right, but I don’t think it’s a major problem. It is better to have an idealistic vision of it towards which we should strive for and that gives incentives, rather than a minimalist version where everyone would be able to pretend to be a a legitimate democracy and still breach human rights. So that’s my dream definition. But to tell you the truth if I have to measure it in a research I might have some troubles. So maybe I’ll have to accept to have a scale with different levels of democracy so that I can compare different countries and different periods of time. At the end my strategy would probably be to have a set of necessary conditions to decide whether or not a country is democratic and then inside the category of democratic countries I will have tools to nuance the quality of democracy. Therefore I think that in the public discourse we should have a very high standard of democracy in order to protect the people. But in the realm of research we might have to simplify reality in order to understand causal relationships and improve our knowledge of reality.

A new barometer for democracy.

In my last blog about democracy in the news I discussed the issue of public funding for political parties. Apparently, in the “democracy barometer”, which assesses 30 countries from 1995 to 2005, “no party financing rules” is considered as hindering the level of democracy. This criteria, added to the lack of freedom of information are responsible for a relatively bad ranking position for Switzerland.

Furthermore even if Switzerland is a direct democracy with a lot of different means to participate, this study confirms the already existing idea that a serious bias causes a lack of political representation.

“The most interesting is the participation function because we have so many opportunities for participation but there is a bias – it’s rather educated people with high income, men rather than women, older people rather than younger people,” Bühlmann explained.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/Swiss_not_as_democratic_as_they_think.html?cid=29353166

I found the article very interesting as it describes the result of this new index of democracy. Here is the link to the barometer :http://www.democracybarometer.org/baroapp/public/static/index?lang=en

It is very relevant for the discussion we were having this week about what a good definition is. In the methodology section of the barometer’s website, the authors explain that “the aim of the Democracy Barometer is not to define whether a country is a democracy or not but to compare the quality of different established democracies”. Therefore their measure is more about the quality of democracy than about the minimal conditions for democracy but it is still very interesting to see what makes a “good” democracy in their opinion. The main indicators are : Freedom, Control and Equality, each of them divided in components and subcomponents to reach a total of 100 indicators!

I invite you to go and check the website so that maybe we can later discuss about it! I think that the course in the following weeks will give us the tools to understand it better!

Let’s be pragmatic. It’s true if it works.

I really enjoyed reading Collier and Adcock because their article is very structured, well-argued and most of all it finally enters into the realm of what we are concretely going to do with a definition of democracy. Not that I don’t like theoretical debates but , as underlined by the authors, “how scholars understand and operationalize a concept can and should depend in part on what they are going to do with it”( 537). Therefore I really liked their idea of seeing the definition of democracy, not only as a pleasurable philosophical struggle between ideas and academic’s egos, but also as a tool to test causal relationships.

In their article, Collier and Adcock assess the definitions of different authors to see  the underlying justifications for their choice between dichotomous and gradated definitions. Then, they criticize those justifications by clearly balancing advantages and disadvantages, arriving to the conclusion that it is often arguable to use both dichotomous and gradated definitions depending on the aim of the research. Moreover, they emphasize the importance of limiting the study of democracy in a certain time and space to avoid incomparable comparisons. Justifications must be as specific as possible and built into the framing of the research question.

Near the end of the article they develop the idea of bounded wholes, which I found very interesting. Starting from Sartori’s definition of a bounded whole : ” a system constituted by multiple attributes, all of which must presumably be present for a case to be classified as an instance of the concept” (543), they focus on the conceptual interaction among the defining attributes of democracy.

It is very interesting to see that for example, the absence of civil liberties cancels the interpretation of the other attributes as being democratic, whereas decree powers do not. Therefore, defining attribute do not all have the same importance in a definition. Some are crucial and some are less crucial. This conclusion however, is not a real one, as it brings us back to the starting point : what are the minimal fundamental components of democracy?!

Finally, the only critic that I could easily see arising against their pragmatic approach is the threat of being to relativist because nothing is ever wrong depending on what we are looking for and how we justify it. For example, when they discuss a solution to compare transitions to democracy with a dichotomous classification, their advice is to “compare regimes according to whether they have achieved full democratization in relation to the norms of the relevant time period” (552). What will the result of this be? Democratic under certain conditions of space and time? Is this not a gradation of democracy at the end?

However, I could use their own argument to take their defense. Finding a coherent and theoretical definition of democracy was not the aim of their article. Pragmatism was and I think they achieved it by giving us the tools to choose between dichotomous and gradated definitions. The truth of a definition for them, can be evaluated after the measure not before. It’s true if it works.

Adjectives. Or how to say undemocratic.

“Liberal democracy” as “real democracy”

In this article, the author talks about the future of democracy in Tunisia. He seems to have a gradated vision of democracy where liberal democracy is the “best-case scenario”. We can see here that his root definition does not include the respect of civil liberties as it is the case for example for Collier and Levitsky for whom “fully contested elections with full suffrage and the absence of massive fraud” is combined with “effective guarantees of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, assembly, and association”(434). Therefore, in this article, the adjective is used to precise the definition of democracy by adding defining attributes. On one hand, we can consider it useful in the sense that there is no consensus on the inclusion of the guarantee of civil liberties among the authors yet. On the other hand it is also confusing because it is used in a way that suggests that liberal democracy is the “real” democracy.

“To best support the Tunisian people and protect Western interests in a durable way, the West should stand firm with the Tunisian people and ensure that the country moves toward a liberal democracy.

Only a real democracy can ensure that the people of Tunisia will be satisfied with the results of their uprising, and only then can the West ensure that theocrats or autocrats do not wrest control of the country.”

In that case, by adding the adjective “liberal”, the author actually raises the standard of democracy, stating that the new root definition of democracy should be the liberal one. Thereby he modifies the definition itself.  All other types of democracy are incomplete ones. In that case it would be more effective in my opinion to state that liberal democracy = democracy and that the rest is not and to have a dichotomic vision of the concept instead of having a very long ladder of definitions where only the higher level is actually considered as democracy.  However, considering that the audience cannot know what his root definition is then it is understandable that he specifies what kind of democracy he wishes to have. By doing so he strongly emphasizes what democracy is not and avoid what the authors call “electoralism”.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/21/abaza.tunisia.military/

“Celebrity-led democracy”

Why would someone use this expression?

A japanese minister uses this expression to talk about newly created political parties founded by local government heads. I found this quote very interesting to understand what he meant to achieve with this expression:

“These parties have raised important questions, but there are many impure factors, such as celebrity-led democracy”

I do not know that much about japanese politics, and the professor will tell me if I am misunderstanding this. According to me, the expression is used as a diminished subtype of democracy. By saying that celebrity-led democracy is an “impure factor” I assume that the adjective is meant to show a qualitatively inferior type of democracy. That is for the normative aspect of the expression. Concerning its content I would say that following Sartori’s strategy we are here moving down the ladder of generality, adding more defining attributes, which makes the concept applicable to fewer cases. However, in this case my impression is that it is more a ‘stylistic effect’ used to depreciate the value of those parties as being democratic than a useful conceptual innovation to assess those parties in an academic debate. This is pretty understandable because it is said by a politician whose intention was not academic but rhetorical.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/perspectives/news/20110117p2a00m0na001000c.htmlParliamentary democracy

In both cases, I realized how adjectives can be used not only in a descriptive way but also in a normative way, thereby adding the opinion of the authors on what democracy should be which is probably not what we are looking for when we try to define democracy in an academic manner.

Public funding of political parties as a necessary condition for democracy

I do not know a lot about Canadian politics but when I read this article I thought that your Prime minister seriously threatens the democratic system by willing to eliminate the public funding of political parties. (I do not say Switzerland is better because there is actually no public funding and it is becoming a real issue too)

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/924883–dollars-and-democracy

In a world where the media has such a big importance and the campaigns can influence the results of the vote I think that each party should have the same amount of money to campaign for an election. The whole problems lies in the fact that it is very hard to control the funding anyway because it can be very indirect. Can we measure the value of a celebrity endorsing a political candidate? Can we prevent influential corporations or famous brands to express their political views? Certainly not, or at least it could be argued that it is a breach of their freedom of expression. That is what the article aptly points out. However, even though it is hard to limit the external funding I still think that there should be a minimum provided by the state in order to ensure that each party is able to compete. As mentioned by Dahl, Schmitter and Karl, it is necessary for each citizen to be able to pick his/her preference but if some political parties do not have enough funding they won’t be able to compete. Therefore it is essential for an equal political representation of the preferences of the citizens to have a public funding of the political parties. The argument that the suppression of this funding will save money is not valid because it will reduce the choice available to the citizens, therefore the money will be saved not in favor of the community but in favor of some citizens and  at the expense of others.