I would say that the price of wheat would show up trend in the following month. But some of the days it would show fluctuated price.

As the historical data show, I made a decision last week to short on wheat. That’s because during the past decades, the price of wheat in late September and early October shows limit down. And during these period, the price shows down trend. Now I still believe in this conclusion. I would think the reason is harvest and strong demand of exporters.

But after that, the price would go up eventually. Since more and more people observe the activated market and choose to join in, they would drive up the price. And because of the shock of big drought, people would fare that in the next year, there is not enough storage and then price would show a ” jump” in some day.

If I could catch the “jump day”, then long a wheat would earn a good profit.

I need to correct my ideas on the market reflection. Since corn and wheat are highly correlated, when the price of wheat jump up, then more and more farmers would choose to use corn. And then drive up the price of corn, faster than I could think.

The adjustment period would not need a week or a month, just couple of days even hours. Because that’s a “world demand”, not a small market.