I would think I learn a lot during this trade game.

Firstly and most important – technical analysis. That’s the most important skill I learn. considering I want to continue my phd degree after master degree, I think how to read the trend through graph is vital in research. Also, I would work one day no matter when I take course for phd. In data period, trend line and how to read trends from graph could be helpful.

Secondly, I felt what the market and trade looked like. In China, I didn’t have such a chance to close the real market. I spent four years in my undergrade to deduct model in economic, econometric and finance. This program and this trade game supply me an opportunity to touch the market. It’s great because I don’t need to worry the money because it’s a game. And I could try different order any time I want. If bankrupt, it is just a game.

Thirdly, how to search information through internet, how to share information through blog, and how to write in english. I would like to continue to blog and trade. It’s more helpful in the future than grade.

Thank you dear TA:D

You are so helpful!

The corn

According to the graph:http://www.agrimoney.com/futures.php?page=chart&sym=ZCZ12&domain=agrimoney&display_ice=1&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA There are three points show that the price would trend up.  But the price seems to reach the main level. Thus I am not sure whether the price will continue to trend up next week. If I will trade next week, I would choose to long on corn and focus on the graph each morning, make sure that I could observe change.

The wheat:

Several weeks trend down finally come back bullish market. The graph on agrimoney shows that the price of wheat will go up next week. Because it has a “shoulder” on the graph and it has a long distance before it reach back the main level.

The soybean:

Soybean case is similar with wheat case, so I will choose to long on these three commodities.

In the past week, I only have two contract because of busy time for project.

The correct thing I did last week is long on corn. That made me gain profit and then reduce my lost in short on soybean. Corn price last week continue to climb up.

But the wrong thing I did cause a bigger lost than gain. I short a contract in soybean. I thought that price would reduce because of the bigger plant next year. But I ignore the “shoulder” in area graph. That cause a big lost.

Equity balance after this week is 51 thousand. I lost almost ten thousand.

That’s the last blog for this term but I will continue to trade because I could learn a lot during the trade.

http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2012/Q4/u.s.-unlikely-to-dominate-future-corn-exports,-economist-says.html

“U.S unlikely to dominate future corn export, economist says”

This blog shows that U.S is shrinking in the “dominate” export country in world market. The reasons are as follows: i) other countries expand plant area; ii)USA did not do as other countries; iii)big drought. The US export amount decrease and other countries increase their market share.

http://www.ncga.com/news-stories/742-ncga-commends-house-of-representatives-for-approving-russia-mfn-legislation/

NCGA Commends House of Representatives for Approving Russia MFN Legislation

This news shows that Russia attend WTO and try to offset their trade barries with USA and world market.

These two articles here means our world market shows tendency to become a perfectly market. The big country is shrinking and trade barriers are declining. Free trade in world market would increase trade efficiency and effectiveness, decrease unfairness as well.

For Corn:

The price would show fluctuate next week because different triangles in the graph. But according to the report, price of corn may trend up. The increasment would not stable because there is a rectangle in our graph.

For wheat:

The price of wheat would go down I think. The graph did not show too much information about the future trend because it go up and down and no more than three points for forecasting. But since price of soybean would go down – for the reason that greater plant of soybean, wheat price may trend down.

Sorry for the delay of this blog..I forgot it at the weekend after busy week with projects and fever and cold…

I didn’t know what happen this week actually. If I need to say something right here I think it was that I didn’t offset my short contract on soybean. Though the price dropped down but not so big so I still get profit.

The wrong side is so many things and confusing — I didn’t know what happen because on the Tuesday, I began seven contract and only two of them finish processing when I checked on Wednesday morning. Thus I try to offset them and restart another five contract but on Friday, only three of them finish the processing. So I don’t know how to conclude my trade in the past week.

I don’t know how to deal with two “suddenly” come contracts because they showed there  suddenly..

I think the technical analysis is very useful according to my increasing balance. Now it comes to almost 53 thousand.

The URL below is the Area chart of soybean in March, 2013.

http://www.agrimoney.com/futures.php?page=chart&sym=ZSH13&domain=agrimoney&display_ice=1&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA

It comes from agrimoney – public side.

I confused in the soybean market of 2013, march. Since the price shows a downward trend, and hits the lowest support level. I would think that the price may go up because of lowest support level.  But the triangle shows it may continue to go down.

==========

The URL below is the Area chart of soybean in March, 2013.

http://www.agrimoney.com/futures.php?page=chart&sym=ZSX12&domain=agrimoney&display_ice=1&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA

It shows downward trend in couple of days, so I would continue to hold short in next week.

The URL below is the area chart of wheat in July,2013

http://www.agrimoney.com/futures.php?page=chart&sym=ZWN13&domain=agrimoney&display_ice=1&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=AREA

The price hits the support level and then goes down. But no other top or bottom to support the downward trend. Only use a common knowledge ” when price hits the top then may go down”. Thus I would stay for one or two days before make new contract.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-wheat-crop-estimate-10m-tonnes-overstated–5175.html

“China Wheat Crop Estimate ’10m tonnes overstated’ ”

It seems interesting that China overstated for 2012 wheat harvest. Government of China pointed out that they need to control the price of food market. But this news shows that Chinese government meet a challenge because the disease shock and resulted in the lower production. Then price of wheat goes up, may lead a higher world market price because China is a “big” country in wheat world market.

It is no doubt about that Chinese gov. need to think how to control the food price now because of the supply reduction.

The key words for past week are: i) Thank God; ii) Thank Andrew.

I got the biggest profit since the first week of trade game during last week. I didn’t check my log on Friday because I needed to go back to my uncle’s house and helped prepare the weekend party. That was a busy day and Saturday is a happy day. And on Sunday I took three kids to attend the Remembrance Day Meeting. After I got back to campus and sat down to check my account, it’s already 2210 now.

What surprise me most is that I didn’t see lost in my Friday account email. I even think I misunderstanding and check my trading log.

Thank God, I had seven contract on the first day of last week and didn’t bankrupt. Thank God, I continued to hold the short contract on soybean of Jan, 13 for two weeks and still get profit. Thank God, my short contract on the same date of same commodity were both profitable. I would think that without reasonable forecast and held the same commodity on the same date contract would be so risky….

Thank Andrew. Because after his short lecture on Wed, I could check whether my strategies were reasonable or not. I realized that my long on corn and short on wheat of Jan, 13 would be wrong and non-profitable. Thus on Thursday morning, I have offset them when they were lost. And I checked the price on Thursday night– thanks to Andrew’s lecture, or I would lost more money.

I would follow the technical analysis next week. I tried to use it couple weeks ago but failed. I realized that is because my analysis was incorrect at that time after this week.

Thank God!

Thank Andrew!

I’ve known more about trades since so many weeks on trade game. And eventually I could make profit through searching the internet, using what I learn in class, such as the price link between two countries, the big country and the small country when make an international trade to analysis the market when I saw Ukraine try to set barriers. And tried to forecast the market trend when Sandy come.

I think I know a lot more than before, at least now I could use what I learn in class to analysis the market. I would think that the price of corn, soybean and wheat next week may fluctuate. But in long term, wheat would increase faster than the other two commodities. However, because of the substitution, price of corn would also trend up.

I hope I could try limit order next week. I felt happy now not because I make money, but I try step by step and know more at each step. I tried to sign contracts more than on one commodities at  the same time, tried to use “hedge” and realized that I’m speculator and should call it spread, now the next step is to try limit order in one or two commodities. Hope that I could do a good job in coming months.

Cheer up!