the road ahead (week 3)

I just tried something new for the coming week because I realized that there is no way that I could beat the market and get information beforehand. I could only make my own judgments and predictions by using sources of information and commentaries from experts.

To follow up on what I learnt about future spreads, I bought an intra-market seasonal spread. I long December 2013 corn at a price of 624.25 cents per bushel and short July 2014 corn at 641.50 cents per bushel simultaneously. The rational behind this is that December contracts may be under pressure during the fall harvest due to the wide basis levels. As the harvest unfolds, the December contract will then gain on the July contract the next year. In this scenario, I am supposed to buy December 2012 corn and sell July 2013 corn since it is the fall harvest season now. However, I did not long December 2012 and short July 2013 corn because somehow the December 2012 corn’s price (744.20 cents per bushel) is even higher than the July 2013 corn contract (734.00 cents per bushel). Therefore, I bought the next year’s contracts and this may not be possible in the real world.

http://www.trading-systems.info/Options_Spreads/seasonal_patterns.htm

In addition, USDA is coming out with another report on 11th October and I have to watch the market carefully around that time!

One response to “the road ahead (week 3)

  1. Interesting move. Enjoyed reading. It’s great to see you’re applying the concepts that you learned from the class. Keep up the great work!

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