Two of the most prominent effects of global climate change for coastal systems are the potential increase in frequency and intensity of storms, and sea level rise. These risks associated with these impacts commonly focus on the possible extent of temporary or permanent inundation of a coastal region, but fail to consider the wider implications with regards to the socio-economic status of the area in question, and the strength of the coastal forcing itself. Through this final project for the Advanced Issues in Geographical Information Science course (GEOB370) at the University of British Columbia, a nascent attempt at model for quantifying coastal sensitivity to sea level rise on Vancouver Island will be constructed.

Introduction

Existing sensitivity indexes tend to focus exclusively on the physical vulnerability of regions to these impacts, defined by the land elevation, relief, erosion potential (bedrock type and geomorphology), and natural habitats of the area, among other factors. The focus on these variables is instrumental in examining the tendency of a coastal region towards temporary or permanent inundation, but this often occurs at the expense of any underlying socio-economic factors that may contribute to elevated vulnerability to climate change risks. Vulnerability in this project will be defined as the susceptibility of coastal resources and human activity to climate change risks, evaluated on human-based value judgments (McFadden 2010).

In the interest of attempting to conduct a more thorough, qualitative evaluation of the vulnerability of the shoreline of Vancouver Island to climate change risks, the vulnerability index used by McLaughlin and Cooper (2010) will be adapted for this project. Two sub-indexes will be constructed: one for coastal characteristics, and one for socio-economic factors. The three sub-indexes will be plotted separately on different maps, before being combined into a single index to give an overall qualitative, comparable scale to the idea of vulnerability to climate change effects along the coast of Vancouver Island.

The relative importance of the expansion of the index beyond physical or geological factors will be evaluated by comparisons between the generated physical and socio-economic sub-indexes. The most vulnerable regions according to the two sub-indexes and the final, combined index will also be determined.