![](\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/0\/09\/505px_Closed_Sign.jpg\")
Photo Credit: JamesAlan1986 at English Wikipedia [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/3.0) or GFDL (http:\/\/www.gnu.org\/copyleft\/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>Today, the Vancouver School Board announced the possible closure of my old elementary school, among several others.<\/p>\n
While I believe that school closures are not automatically terrible things – sometimes shutting a school\u00a0down can lead to making a better system overall – I get the sense that the premise behind the school closure is flawed. \u00a0The question I address here is:<\/p>\n
“Does a demographic analysis support the notion that schools should be closed?”<\/p>\n
As we’ve heard, the province won’t fund seismic upgrades until a district has 95% utilization of its school sites. \u00a0But does this make sense?<\/p>\n
Most in the public sphere have argued that having schools that aren’t fully utilized is a good thing – this “underutilized space” is actually used for music education, daycares, preschools, strong start centres and other important services. \u00a0This is a perfectly good argument, but I don’t have much insight to add to it. \u00a0But I do have something to add:\u00a0my background as someone who did enrolment management planning for universities leads me to look at another angle: what do the demographics say about this issue?<\/p>\n
Well, as it happens, the province has a tremendous resource on this question:<\/p>\n
Pulling the data from the BC Stats Demographics website<\/a>, which lets you look at the future school-aged population projection by school district, you can see a few things:<\/p>\n Now perhaps those predictions will prove wrong – housing affordability issues may keep that predicted growth out of Vancouver – but the point is that we are currently at the demographic low point. \u00a0Right now, we have the smallest the school-aged population since Gen X. \u00a0It is the smallest it will be until the grandchildren of Gen Xers hit the schools. \u00a0From a long-term planning perspective, this is the exact wrong moment to ‘right size’ the school district and require 95% utilization – we are right sizing to the smallest system we need on the 40-50 year population cycle. \u00a0Shutting down empty classrooms will likely lead to a predictable and avoidable explosion of portables in a decade or so.<\/p>\n So, my issue is not about whether there is virtue in 85% utilization vs. 95% utilization. \u00a0My issue is that when faced with a 32% growth in student population, why on earth would a government that claims it is responsible force that district to leave no more than a 5% buffer in its capacity?<\/p>\n See this differently? \u00a0I’d love to hear your comments below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Today, the Vancouver School Board announced the possible closure of my old elementary school, among several others. While I believe that school closures are not automatically terrible things – sometimes shutting a school\u00a0down can lead to making a better system … Continue reading \n