Finally we finished the two midterms and the midterm case…woohoo…^0^…feel a little bit relaxed right now although we still have the coming presentation on Monday…aii…
Actually I really want to use the price spread to do analysis this week. However, I am still not sure how to find out the transportation costs…so I decided to use MACD and SMA to estimate the price this week…
Oct 26, 2011
According the MACD and simple moving average, the price of corn is in a bullish mode since the fast moving average across the slow moving average from the below and never across to the slow moving average again from Oct 11. Also, according to RSI, the volume is in the middle of 20 and 80, which means the market was neither overbought or oversold, so I decided to take long position on corn since although it fluctuated day to day last week, it is still in the bullish mode. I still use a similar strategy from last week to estimate the price. Since I am going to take a long position, and the prices appear to increase for one day and decrease in the following day, so I used the price from yesterday to add the largest change in low price from the last few days to bid. The largest change in low price was 0.6 cents, so I bade a little bit higher in order to enter the market, which means I chose to add 1 cent from the lowest price yesterday to bid.
I did not bid for soybean since the price of soybean was more fluctuated than I can expect.
Corn (1 long contract): (-1)*(648-637.2)*50=-540
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin Balance: -11230-540=-11770
For Oct 27 and Oct 28, I did not make any decision for neither soybean nor wheat since I felt a little bit risky to take any position right now since I was really confused by the price trends. However, I still kept my long contract of corn since although I know it was a little bit fluctuated for the last few days, the price was still in a bullish mode, and the RSI was still in the middle of 20 and 80, so I decided to hold it even though I realized that I will lose a little bit of money by the fluctuation.
In this week, I was a little bit conservative about bidding since I kept losing much for the last few weeks, and the price trend was not too clear this week. I think we could earn a little bit if we bade more aggressive to make small amount of money by taking positions of corn since it seems like the price follows “up today and down tomorrow” for these two weeks, and nothing big happen to make the price slump or rally heavily.
Oct 27, 2011
Corn (did not bid): (-1)*(637.2-651.4)*50=710
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin balance: -11770+710=-11060
Oct 28, 2011
Corn (did not bid): (-1)*(651.4-655)*50=180
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin balance: -11060+180=-10880
I don’t feel like bidding this week:( not motivated. Good to see you finished Yan.
Hey Yiyi, thank you very much for your comments!~
Yea I know your feeling since we were all tortured by the midterms and case studies for the last two weeks and we all felt tired…but I think you wrote very good blog about your strategy this week, and I just commented on your blog~you can go and check it^^
haha! Yan! You should check out Nick’s blog, he did a great job on the price spread. It seems you rely heavily on the technical analysis.
I think I should also put my hands off wheat. It’s too weird.
Hey Tasha, thank you very much for your comments!~
Thank you very much for telling me about Nick’s blog~I just went to check and found that he really did nice job about analyzing the price spread between two commodities…although my strategy of analyzing spread will be a little bit different from him (mine is only focusing on one commodity), I still think that I learned a lot from his blog!~
About wheat, do you think that the black sea region news will affect the price a lot?since I read so many people mentioned about this and I felt quite interested in it…:)
hey yan!im happy u feel a lil bit relaxed now:) me too!!really dont wanna do any work = =but we have to..sigh…
im sooo happy to see u mentioned about RSI and moving average.I totally feel new about this knowledge which i seldome think of checking it to predict price..So i think next time ill focus a lil bit on this and technical analysis as a source to bid!
Thx for sharing!!!
Hey Fancy, thank you very much for commenting!~
Thank you very much for liking our group work since we are actually using RSI, MACD and moving average to estimate the price trend every week now…BUT just a little bit comment, be careful about using these index if you are considering short term strategy since it will confuse you sometimes…if you want to take a look at long term trends, it will work more better^^
Hi Yan,
Good to hear you feel a little relaxed now. Be sure to take breaks and not be so tensed or stressed all the time. I try to do that too, so that I can clear my mind and think about the bids and commodities. Hopefully that helps for you too. Keep it up!!
Thank you for sharing your nice bolg, Yan! but I posted mine so late..55555
Good night!