It is unbelievable that it has been week 9 already…Four weeks later, the first semester of our grad school will finish…Suddenly feel that time flies really fast…
In this week, I basically used one simple strategy to estimate the prices: look at the price changes at the end of the day for a few days. If the price was increasing at an increasing rate for two days, that means the price might reach its maximum point during the week, it might probably decrease in the following day; if the price was decreasing at an increasing rate for two days, that means the price might reach its minimum point during the week, it might probably increase in the following day. This strategy actually helps me to earn a little bit money this week although sometimes I could not estimate the maximum and minimum price accurately, and I had to bid very aggressively to get in and get out of the market. I was very conservative this week since if I found that the price might reach the maximum point today, I took short contract for that commodity immediately tonight even though I might be able to earn more in the following day.
Then at the end of this week, now I am going to combine this strategy and the news that I read to figure out whether this kind of price trend matches what the news predicted. Also, Simple Moving Average helps me a little bit during this week. By combining these strategies, I could not only figure out whether the price trend matches what the news predicted, but also I will not rely too much on the news…
Nov 2, 2011
I followed the expert group’s information to do my decision today.
It seems like every group are predicting different results for the three commodities.
| Corn | Soybean | Wheat | |
| Technical Analysis | + | – | + |
| Production and Crop Report | – | + | – |
| Demand and Global Outlook | + | not sure | – |
| Weather Report | + | + | + |
| U.S Exchange Rate | – | – | – |
Hey Yan! “look at the price changes at the end of the day for a few days” is a somewhat good idea but often when we see its going to decrease its actually increasing the next day…you know what I mean…and I think your group,tech analysis, always have accurate predictions about the price trend.Thx for sharing!
yesyes Yiyi I know what you mean, and you are definitely right!!!~just like this week, if I am continue to use this strategy, I think I will lose a lot…and sometimes using this strategy cannot predict too much about whether it increases enough to get to the maximum point or decreases enough to get to the minimum point…I think you gave me some new thoughts about my strategy, and thank you so much!~
But sometimes, it is still worth trying using this strategy if there are not too many significant events happened…it will work sometimes:)
hihi yan, Thank you for your professional analysis!! but I feel a little confused about this “From U.S Exchange Rate point of view, the price of the commodities are high now”, which means it is the total tendency in this week? or just happened at the beginning of this week? Thank you soo much!
Good night!
zoe
Hi Zoe,
Thank you very much for your comment~~
For your question, I think if the price of the commodity are too high now in the short run, it will decrease in the long run since the government will impose policy to adjust the prices…and this will happen only if the price keeps being very high…but I cannot predict whether it will happen during the same week or somewhat in the future since there will also be other factors affect the prices…hope that answer your question:)
Yan, well done! Very good explanation on the technical strategy you used! And seems like you succeed with your new strategy. I’m still not comfortable with moving average and other tech analysis. Maybe I should try this week. Thanks for sharing!
Yijeong
Hi Yijeong, thank you very much for your comment!!!~
As I observed, only the price trend of corn that calculated in the technical indicators work a little bit for this week…however, for soybean and wheat, it is not really clear if you are going to use these technical indicators…also, these indicators, such as SMA and MACD, the market signal will be strong only when the slow moving average and fast moving average cross~~~hope it helps…:)
oh yan !!i like ur only strategy!!!Tahst soo smart!where u learn it from?haha so u mean u check CME settle price for a few days to see what the trend would be ?
i always take it for granted taht if price keep rising for 2 days the price should decrease in the following day….
but if it keep decreasing…im not sure if it will increase soon….
i just take it too granted..but now i can use ur stretegy haha
thx for sharing good luck yanyan!
we gonna be in the same team haha soo happy!
Hi Fancy, thank you very much for your comments!~
I think this strategy only works for the weeks when there are no great events happen…and since I observed it for around 2 to 3 weeks on the settle price, I got this idea~~~so it may not work for the other weeks, especially for this week (sorry I replied to you too late…since I replied to you one week after…)…
But I think by observing the prices for a few weeks, it can still develop our sensitivity of price changes, although sometimes we cannot use it as a strategy when we were bidding:)