It is the second last week of the trading game already…a little bit start missing this game already…I think, if we do not have that many assignments, homework, readings, projects and presentations to do, I really want to enjoy and find out more about this game…
First of all, I want to conclude what I have learned from this game:
-My time management is really bad…and my reading speed is really low…these are the things that I found out when I played this game, and I think I have not improved that much and need to improve more…
-I start being more sensitive about the numbers…From the very beginning of this game, I could not even tell whether the prices are increasing, decreasing or fluctuated in a week…and when I looked at the numbers and price trend, I just want to say “leave me alone” and do not even want to look at it…but now, after kept staring at the numbers for these two weeks, I start being sensitive to the numbers and price trend. And I can easily connect the numbers with the SMA and MACD from my technical analysis…feel so happy about it since I am no longer feeling dizzy when I am looking at the numbers…
-Start feeling sensitive about the news that I read, especially when I read the news about the new USDA report releasing…although I still cannot figure out whether the price will increase or decrease from the news by most of the time…
-I learned a lot from my classmates’ blogs: too many to say…and I really want to say thank you to my classmates!!!You guys always bring me and teach me lots of new ideas about this game!!!~Although we cannot learn this game very systematically, I think we have learned a lot from each other’s blogs~~~:)
Ok let me just stop here…I think I still have a lot to say but just let me leave them to the final week…
Trading strategies this week:
In this week, I only bade once on Tuesday for corn, and my decision was mainly based on the new USDA report released on Wednesday since I knew that there will be big impact on price changes again…
Actually I start realizing that sometimes when the time that USDA report releases, the price will change in the opposite way of the one that they predicted before…Just like this week, the USDA report actually should be released on Wednesday which indicates that output of corn was lower than expectation. This directly caused the Ethanol price to increase since the price of corn increases by decreasing in outputs…However, this news has already had impact on Tuesday’s market before the USDA report released…I actually felt weird about this at that time since I thought that this impact on price should be indicated after the report released…but still, I went long for corn since I still a little bit trusted the news…just wanted to try and see what happened…
My decision was wrong since the price started decreasing after the report released…
I think I figured out a little bit from this now: if the price impact has already shown before the report releases, this might be a signal of the price will move the opposite way after the report releases. Do not forget, the traders are very smart…just like this week, they bade up the price before the report releases, that means it is a good time for them to take short position to earn profits in the future…
Also, this week, combining our technical analysis group’s analysis, the SMA and MACD both indicated that the fast moving average almost crosses the slow moving average from the above for corn. This will be a strong signal at this moment for corn since the market might be bearish in the very near future…(I think it is very good to look at the http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/ regularly since it really gave me sense about the market)…
I did not offset my long contract of corn this week since the SMA indicates that there is still a small gap between fast moving average and slow moving average…and I thought that the price might still have a lag before it decreases…however, I was wrong…
So even though I estimated pretty correctly about the trend, I still lost a lot because of the long contract…
Nov 9, 2011
Corn (1 long contract): (-1)*(659.5-656)*50=-175
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin balance: -9410-175=-9585
Nov 10, 2011
Corn (did not bid): (-1)*(656-645.4)*50=-530
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin balance: -9585-530=-10115
Nov 11, 2011
Corn (did not bid): (-1)*(645.4-638.4)*50=-350
Soybean (did not bid)
Wheat (did not bid)
Margin balance: -10115-350=-10465
Hi Yan, really enjoy reading your blogs, you always have a lot of insights and your own ideas to say, like you did on other classes. specifically, you have a good sense of technical analysis on SMA and MACD that are quite effective and efficient, but I know sometimes it seems like that those numbers are not able to show abviously how the market are going on; therefore, you have to know a lot about demands and supplies for the commodities, which is exactly what you did in your trading game… nice!
anyway, next week is the last week of trading… good luck!!! 🙂
I am sorry to reply u late Deron…
Thank you very much for your comment!~I think you also did a great job on analyzing the news and using hedging to take decisions too!!!~~~i hope tat I can learn from you in those ways when I am going to make decisions in the future (if i can hv the chances again~~~)
and we now hv to work hard on our presentation next week…aii…
Anyway, good luck for the rest of the work for this semester!!!~
Hey Yan,I really think you improved a lot in the game! In fact I think we are all improving. As you mentioned about the USDA report, I wasn’t very sure of how to judge it at all in the begining as well. I think we now can all read and use news better. You rock girl! And keep it up! Good luck in the last week of the game!
Yiyi, thank you very much for your comment, and I am sorry to reply to u late~
Yea I think the USDA report really confused us a lot at the beginning, but now we hv more sense about it…however, we still hv to pay attention abt its effects if we hv chances to play this game again in the future…
Good luck for all the rest of the work of the semester for u!!!~
Hug Yan! I know this week you were so busy for your VISA!
Don’t blame yourself that much, I know there are too many stuff to wait us for dealing with! You should take care for yourself!
Good luck! See you next week!
yea Tasha, the VISA stuff really bothered me…but fortunately i hv got it done, and hope tat nothing is getting wrong in the process…cuz we r getting so so so busy now…
Anyway, thank u so much^^
Really good thing to conclude your lesson learnt from the game. I am gonna do the same thing with you in my last blog of next week. Don’t be so sad you know we can keep talk about the future market with each other even after this trading game ends. I am also so interested in it right now.
Hope you doing well in the last week. See ya then.
Lixi
Hey Lixi, Thank you for your comment and i am sorry to reply to u late…>”<... yea maybe we can still hv discussion after we all finish our work for the rest of the semester (project, presentation and final exams...headache...) cuz im so into the game now too^^ Good luck to u too:)
Hi Yan, really like your blog!!Thank you for sharing your opioions!!
Thank you for your comment Zoe~~~