Last week, the tendency of soybeans did not change drastically. My position was still sustained a huge loss in my trading game. The negative returns (red colour number) had lasted for three weeks. Patience is important for me to confront current situtation becuase soybeans will reach peak in the following weeks theoretically.

Decision and Analysis:

As a speculator, I always expected price of soybeans to be rapidly gone up  after taking a long position in order to achieve margin. However,The the unanticipated and weather news enable soybeans to deviate from my predict. For weather news, cold and wet weather in central areas of the U.S resulted in the rise of soybean futures. Basing on the weather news, I can expect that soybeans will increase immediately . As news expecting, the price of soybean futures increased sharply from  $12.66 to $13.00.  The  price of soybean was under observation till Oct 17 morning,however, there is no forebode of slump in soybean futures market.As a result, I decided to purchase 1 soybean futures contract for Nov 13 position. The soybeans fallen back to $12.91 immediately after unanticipated news posted . The news showed that china would import the more soybeans from U.S.  Therefore, I made a small loss immediately from soybean futures because of slow decision-making. I could not take lots of actions after I purchased too many soybean futures contracts. I expected soybeans to have an increasing trend with good unanticipated news next week so that I can survive from my big loss.

Soybeans News Link:

Weather News:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/corn-swings-as-investors-weigh-drier-outlook-for-midwest-crops.html

Unanticipated News:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-17/corn-swings-on-u-s-harvest-outlook-as-rain-aids-south-america.html

Portfoilo Summary:

I have suffered -42.24% returns on my last week`s portfoilo. This week`s portfoilo begun to rebound slowly (-19.24%). It is a connotation that my portfoilo will achieve breakeven soon becasue of 23% increase .

Lessons from this week:

1. The the unanticipated news have deeply influence on futures than weather news, so we should make a decision on futures immediately.
2. Short hedging is a good method to get out of risk if you are risk-netural trader.
3. “ Do not be penning-wise and pound foolish” .This idiom reveals that purchasing too many contracts at a time is a terrible action becuase trader is difficult to adjust next strategies flexibly.

Good luck and look forward to my long-term investment in next week.