Bitter Experience from this week`s Trade:

The beginning of this week:

Soybeans and corn futures had expectant trend through last week. Corn and Soybeans had a fluctuation with a narrow range (small increase and decrease during this period). As I mentioned last week, wheat had a prospective analysis on trend which means that wheat would rise sharply this week because of large export from US to other countries. So I made a decision (purchased 10 wheat contracts) on Sep 30 in order to gain the quick returns. The result from this short-term investment was gratifying ( I gained 2250 margins).

Tremendous Change in the mid-week:

After gained profit from wheat transaction,I planned to proceed with several of short-term investment in wheat and corn. In addition, I expected my long-term investment in soybean to steadily rise at  October . When I woke up on Oct 1, soybeans and corn`s positions turned into red which means that I suffered a huge loss. However, I still looked forward to the growth of soybeans. Because I encountered the same situtaion about soybeans and corn suddenly slump one day), then soybeans and corn rapidly increased. Finally, I sold them immediately and gained roughly $2500 profit from this trade. Sp I thought I should pay more patience on the change of my futures.Unexpectedly, those futures slumped continuously in the following day. I knew the reason why slump in soybeans(Too many Inventories reason) and corn(big harvest reason).My purchasing power became negative so I could not reduce my loss throught trade.

Prospective Analysis about Corn and Soybeans:

Soybeans:

With excess supply of soybeans from huge harvest, soybeans continued to stay bottom. It approached to hit 19-month low. I think this is an opportunity to short and cover soybeans futures as a short-term investment. Nevertheless, upcoming rain weather which will slow harvest would have a chance to save downturn of soybeans. Soybeans start to be dramatically rebounded on Oct 3. With rainy season continuosly, I predicted that soybeans will boom in the future. Furthermore,the harvest of soybeans will be ended at November according to seasonal reason. The difference between supply and demand of soybeans will cause shortage(supply>Demand).  This condition will push soybeans to jump sharply.Therefore, I would not do any transaction on soybeans in order to wait for high returns in the foreseeing.

Corn:

The tendency of corn was almost the same as soybeans, but corn slid to three-year low. So corn decreased continuously in whole week. The harvest of corn will also ended at Nov. I felt that corn to rise in the next week because of low supply. So I did not sell the corn immediately  to reduce my loss immediately. I decided to do a long-term investment on corn.

Trendency of my portfoilo:

There is slump from Sep to Oct in my portfoilo. My portfoilo has hit 1-month bottom. However, the sign of resurgent in my portfoilo is slow. I expected my portfoilo to be beakeven in the future.

What I learned from this week:

1.  I should purchase futures carefully. Do not buy huge amount of futures (greater than 10 contracts) once. Becuase remarkable gain and risk exists simultenously.
2. New knowledge about future market is necessary. I only use the purchase and sell sales. I should learn something about cover and short.
3. Pay more attention to global future market.

Good luck and look forward to my long-term investment in next week.