My portfolio`s open positions :

Last Week:

VS

This Week:

I compared last week`s  with this week`s position. I found that Corn and soybeans slumped continuously. My portofilo`s return is negative. My loss has been exceeded 40000 dollars.

New Knowledge from FRE 501 Class about Futures Market:

Basis：

The definition of basis is equal to the cash price minus the futures price. In the trading game, I can find some data about basis for different month futures contracts to predict prospective trend of futures. It is better for me to choose a potential futures which will rise.

My perspective analysis about Soybeans and Corns:

Soybeans:

With excess supply of soybeans from huge harvest, soybeans continued to stay bottom. It approached to hit 19-month low. I think this is an opportunity to short and cover soybeans futures as a short-term investment. Nevertheless, upcoming rain weather which will slow harvest would have a chance to save downturn of soybeans. Soybeans start to be dramatically rebounded on Oct 8. With rainy season continuosly, I predicted that soybeans will boom in the future. Furthermore,the harvest of soybeans will be ended at November according to seasonal reason. The difference between supply and demand of soybeans will cause shortage(Supply>Demand).  This condition will push soybeans to be jumped sharply in the November.Therefore, I would not do any transaction on soybeans now in order to pursue high returns in the future.

News Link about Soybeans: Soybeans Futures

Corns:

The tendency of corn was almost the same as soybeans, but corn slid to three-year low. So corn decreased continuously in whole week. The harvest of corn will also ended at Nov. I felt that corn to ascended in the  November because of shortage of corn.  So I did not sell the corn immediately to reduce my loss immediately. I decided to do a long-term investment on corn.

News Link about Corn:Corn Futures

Tendency of my portfoilo:

There is little increase  from Oct 1 to Oct 4 in my portfoilo.  However, my portfoilo has approached to hit 1-month bottom again.  I expected my portfoilo to be beakeven in the future.

What I learned from this week: 

1. Pursuing high returns always bring high risk.
2. New knowledge about future market is necessary. It can help you to make a proper decision to achieve the profit.
3. Pay more attention in the long-term investment.

Good luck and look forward to my long-term investment in next week.