This week my strategies were not that clear, so it resulted in the loss of 4,000. Finally, my net balance is 20,900, losing almost 5,000.

First bid on 15^th November, Tuesday

Two short contracts for corn at 647 and two long for wheat at 629.6

For corn

From the view of RSI, the fast moving average is below slow moving average, which means the corn market is bearish. In addition, the fast MACD just crossed the slow MACD, which is a strong signal of the bearish corn market.

For wheat

European Union wheat stocks are to remain “tight” despite a better harvest and it would increase imports from the Black Sea, as rising use by livestock farms and ethanol plants mops up much of the extra supplies.

Second bid on 16^th November, Wednesday

One short contract for corn(failed) and three long contracts for wheat

For Corn

Due to weakening of the US dollar, we can expect that demand for US exports will rise, but this effect will be offset by the larger worldwide supply of corn and feed competition; therefore, the corn price would be still a downward trend.

For wheat

Consumers on Taiwan, like others around the world, are becoming more health-conscious and aware of the nutritional value of whole- and multi-grain products. As U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) recognized this as an opportunity to increase markets for U.S. wheat, the organizations have partnered with the Taipei office of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service to promote healthy baked goods in Taiwan. Therefore, huge hunger for US wheat would make the wheat price positively.

Third bid on 17^th November, Thursday

Take two long contracts for corn and five short contracts for wheat

The reason was just offsetting all of my contracts. For corn, the main reason is tight stocks and strong demand of US corn. The U.S. will need every bushel of corn produced this year to meet the need for food and fuel and to rebuild supplies to a more comfortable level.

In the end, I can’t believe that the trading game would be over this week. Even though it took more than 10 weeks, I still felt time was going so fast. Based on this game, I Learnt how the futures market work and experienced a wonderful course on trading as well. Thanks Prof. Jim for giving us the opportunity to learn about the futures market, as well as Andrew and Javier.

This week there seems like to be quite less information before USDA’s report this Wednesday. However, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that
agricultural commodities prices are expected to remain at high levels well into 2012, as well as prices would continue to be extremely volatile.

First bid on Tuesday, 8^th November

Take three long contracts for corn, one short contract for soybeans and wheat respectively

For corn

Recently, Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD), the nation’s largest pork processor, said their hog production would increase considerably because of very strong export demand. As a main hog’ feed, plenty of corn will be needed to meet their demands for higher hog production, which would potentially drive the corn price up. Also, China will become the world’s top importer of agricultural products such as corn used mainly in animal feed within recent years due to limited arable land and “relatively weak” agricultural technologies, and it will affect the corn price positively.

For soybeans

According to Wednesday’s supply-and-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. export demand for soybeans are weak, so it implies that the price of soybeans will be bearish before USDA will issue the new report this Wednesday.

For wheat

In Kazakhstan and Russia high wheat harvests has led to a shortage of storage space and increase in export transportation costs such that they exceed wheat prices. This should push down the price of Black Sea wheat and have a bearish effect on US wheat prices.

Second bid on Thursday, 10^th November (not bad)

Take three long contracts for corn and soybeans respectively

For corn

On Wednesday the USDA reported that The 2011 U.S. corn crop was now forecast at 12.31 billion bushels, 123 million smaller than the October forecast and 137 million smaller than the 2010 crop, because yield forecasts declined substantially for Minnesota, the Dakotas and Texas. Also, the national average yield is forecast at 146.7 bushels, 1.4 bushels lower than the October forecast. These reasons would cause the corn price to go up for sure.

For soybeans

Almost same reason as I did for corn. The 2011 U.S. soybean crop is now forecast at 3.046 billion bushels, 14 million less than the October forecast and 293 million bushels smaller than the 2010 crop. The U.S. average yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels, 0.2 bushel below the October forecast and 2.2 bushels below the 2010 average. Even though the soybeans crop was just slightly less than the October forecast comparing to corn crop, I still insisted that the soybeans price would go up in the following few days.

Overall, the grain prices are still fluctuating this week, which is still hard to control. But we just have one week left to play the trading game, hope everyone will be going well and make the end better…

This week the prices of commodities were quite fluctuating for several days. However, my strategies seemed to be not that clear since more than half of bids were failed. I have no idea what reasons were, but as for the strategies, I have to analyze them where the problems were from this weekend.

First bid on 1st Nov, Monday

One short contract for corn, soybeans and wheat respectively

There were several reasons that I predicted all three commodities’ price would be a downward trend. First, bigger crops in Ukraine and the European Union are increasing competition for U.S. grain in export markets. Second the US dollar will spike because of Japanese intervention in currency exchange market by buying US dollars, so, to a great extent, the prices of three commodities would decrease. Also, Ukraine had harvested 68 percent of its planted corn last week, reaping 14.1 million metric tons, more than all of last year’s harvest, so the excess supply should also drive the corn price down. However, just the soybeans price went down from 1207.4 to 1192.2, in turn, the corn price rose from 647 to 654.2 with relatively stable wheat price.

Second bid on 2^nd Nov, Tuesday

Two long contract for corn (not enter to the market)

The reason why I was going long was due to the strong demand from China.

Third bid on 3^rd Nov, Wednesday

One short contract for both soybeans and wheat

For soybeans

I thought the strong US dollar would be still the big factor affecting the soybeans price since soybeans futures were down for several days because of continuously Japanese intervention. It means that stronger US dollar will reduce the appeal of US crops to overseas buyers and make commodities less attractive as an alternative investment; therefore, the grain futures were still bearish.

For wheat

Since the market of wheat was pressured by the forecasts of crop-friendly weather for the US hard red winter wheat area, the potential increased production would drive the wheat price down.

This week it seems to be depressing as losing a lot of money. Hopefully, based on organizing my strategies well, I could make a good performance on the game.