Last week I expect the price of corn and soybean increase. First I look at the oil price.  Due to Hurricane Sandy moving toward northeaster US, it causes that Oil supply is not guaranteed for a while. Also US currency is depreciated against Euro and Yuan. Such increasing oil price and increasing demand $US lead to increasing commodity price in general.

More specifically, regarding wheat market, I chose a long position.  It was because the amount of actually supplied did not meet the expected harvest amount in Russia. As well, main region for agriculture in US has not recovered from severe drought weather. Also from Nov 15^th Ukraine implement wheat export ban. All these led to wheat price would go up I expect. I offset what I bought last week for wheat and and corn commodity on Oct 30th. I think I should have not offset it. I was afraid of whether the price kept increasing with my short position. And I made big loss of -4595.5, and the wheat price kept dropping to 868.5 until last Thursday, so my potential loss was -212.5.  , Luckily on Friday the wheat price increased to 878.50, so I gain 286.50. So I can say my prediction was right on the last day of trading.

For soybean market, I was long position too. I looked news from major soybean producer in Argentina and Brazil. They are expected good harvest, but I expect it takes time to get actual commodity into market. I made conclusion that demand would be greater than supply. My prediction was right until Thursday. The price of Soybean S2X increased to 1558.5 from 1533, and the price of soybean S3F increased to 1560 from 1535. So my potential gain was 1275 and 1250. However, the price decreased on the last day of trading. This causes loss from soybean. I think next time I offset it earlier.