The balance of margin accounts
| Contract | Price in | Price out | Initial position | Offset position | Gain/Loss |
| W2Z | 890.75 | Long | 0 |
What I went wrong
Last week I went Long on wheat. I expected that wheat price was going to increase. It was because of decreasing in exportable wheat from Russia. However, the price kept on decreasing by $855.5 on Sep 26th from $890.75 on Sep 24th.
I assume that the news that Russia is going to export less amount of wheat has not impacted on CBT. I read an article. It says that Egypt, the world’s largest importer, has been the main customer of Russia; however, Egypt makes a contract with France instead of Russia. It seems that the biggest importer finds another supplier in Europe which sells wheat at cheaper price.
However, on Sep. 27th wheat price increased by $902.5. It was expected to increase by +44.4 from CME group. One of reasons is report released by NASS and USDA on September 28, 2012. It says that Corn stocks decrease 12 % and wheat stocks by 2% (provided by Roson’s blog). This means there are less stocks of grain available due to bad harvest. It refers that future price of grain is higher. This calls higher demand of grain. This increasing demand leads to higher price of wheat.
Even though my prediction was right, I did not offset because I misunderstood the closing market time.
http://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=EGY
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/paris-wheat-prices-hold-firm-after-egyptian-order—5034.html