commodity | Price in | Price out | Gain /loss | ||||
C2Z |
Oct-11 |
770.5 |
Long |
Oct-22 |
762 |
short |
-426 |
What I went wrong
Last week I predicted both price of corn and wheat would be increasing. It is because the coming harvest amount was expected to be low. This could not satisfy demand in future. Thus future price was increasing I report. Also farmers sold less stock in the market. This means they were storing more because they could compensate high storage costs with high future costs. However, most days both commodity kept decreasing last week, and few days price was increasing. I could say my expectation was correct only few days. The reason for decreasing price was explained technically. Last few weeks commodity price had been increasing, so it reached the high point of cycle. So it was decreasing. I chose short position. I have short position on two corns and one wheat, and my potential gain 1312.5 wheat and 1200 corn. For my trading balance, I offset one commodity last week, but it transmitted this week. There was time lag. I could make profits if it offset last week. I decide let my short contract in the market, and because the price will eventually will decrease.