US currency is appreciated against Euro. This stronger dollar cause the U.S. crops less attractive for buyer. A long with stronger currency, the crude oil price is expected to low. Analysis said that the demand has not recovered yet and storage for oil is not low. In general I think the price of commodity market tend to increase due to the following U.S. presidential elections. As well, the commodity price will respond to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report on Monday and Thursday’s weekly exports data and Friday’s updated Supply and Demand Report. For better future commodity price, I think following USDA Crop Report is important to check.

For wheat market, “World wheat crop is getting smaller by the day” according to Analyst Melbourne, he mentioned.  I expect wheat price will increase. It is similar with last week. It is due to Ukraine’s export ban policy is implemented soon on 15 NOV. The severe drought weather condition in U.S. Plains affect the supply of wheat, and Australia for New South Wales is expected rain in time of harvest which affects world supply decrease, and greater demand for wheat.

As well soybean market, I expect that the price will increase. Analytics firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean crop to 2.925 billion bushels from 2.86 billion previously. However, there is also forecast of heavy storm in Argentina. It causes the actual planning process to be 4% from 9% last year of 19.7 million hectares they plan to plant soybean. The higher yield will offset the delaying of planning corn in Argentina. So I will choose long for soybean and wheat market.

(1)    http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures—weekly-outlook%3A-november-5—9-240264

(2)    http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Reports_By_Date/2012/November_2012.asp

(3)    http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E8M50IW20121105

(4)    http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsworld.php?id=706994

(5)    http://www.ibtimes.com/corn-soybeans-wheat-prices-858712

(6)    http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex—eur-usd-weekly-outlook:-november-4—9-240269