I ran the simulation four times. In three of the four simulations, the fear factor was medium to low, and the cell capacity was 70-80%. In the third simulation, the fear factor was high, the jail was low capacity, and I lost the next election.

In the simulation in which I was not re-elected, my primary use of the AI was to primarily view the fail to appear as the primary consideration, as my feeling was that the purpose of this pre-trial hearing was to assess just that. During this run, the capacity of the jail went up and down, staying below 50% the entire time, but one or two “big news” reports of reoffenders that were released pushed the fear number very high.

In my final run, where the fear number was the lowest of the four runs, I tried to use “Fail to appear” with the most weight, then “Commit a crime” with the second most weight. Two reds were an automatic detain, and two yellow one green was borderline. I notice that those who failed to appear were les fear-worthy than those who committed another crime. In this run, the fear factor was the lowest, and the prison was the fullest (but not over capacity).

CompStat’s primary purpose, to lower the crime rate and catch more criminals, was corrupted by political factors:  precinct chiefs down-rating crimes or underreporting crimes to show a continually-reducing crime rate, and from mayors wanting the crime rate to always go down, and commissioners wanting stats to show that police were “doing their job”, even if that job was “stop and frisk” or issuing summons non-existent crimes to meet quotas. The corruption of the purpose of CompStat was so clear that the number one purpose, to lower the crime rate, was abrogated by the need to show cops were busy. In fact, if the police do their job properly, the crime rate should drop and the cops should not be that busy.

The Detain/Release AI was similarly corrupted by the need for the pre-trial judge to be re-elected. When I trusted the stats and made decisions based primarily on Fail to Appear, I wouldn’t be re-elected. If I wanted comfortable re-election, I just needed to trust the Commit Another Crime stat, and hope I didn’t overload the jail.