After midterm,we come back to trade game again.After staying away from it for a week,i feel lost about market….I kept wondering what was going on when i can bid again…On Monday,i discussed with my team members about the weather condition,which seemed to be good for harvest.And it turned out to be right,as the news said”corn,wheat and soybean remain bearish with pressure from a rapid harvest in the U.S.”.however the price didnt fall as we expected.I felt lost…Then as i started to read more news,i realize the market is focused on the European situation.So thas’s why price increases during this week.

Before midterm,i still have -1 contract for each commodity,since the price incresed several times during last and this week,my margin balance didnt suffer a lot.So i still had 35000+ left.

On 25th.USAD said the quantity of soybean is less than expected,and market was bullish.So i went -1 for wheat and soybean.As for corn,i heard Chinese demand for corn was up,which means China would import a large amount corn from states,so i guess price would fall.Since i didnt know which factor would affect more on corn price,i didnt bid anything on corn.It turned out that price for soybean and corn decrease a little bit,and wheat price arised.All in all i lost 3000 profit that day.

From 26th.I knew China releases corn from government into market.However,this is not the main factor affecting price,what matters most is European situation.As European leaders boost the region’s rescue fund which sparked a rally in commodity market.At the same time,EU further measures to shore up US economy amounts to more quantitative easing of monetary policy by central bank.US economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year.I think this is the reason commodity markets have seen price strength this week.Morever,from reading news from twitter,i saw food price inflation is quite high,which might have some effect on price.

After witnessing market for a day,i went long -1 for three contracts on 27th.It was quite a successful day for me which i gained 5000+ . Gradually my feeling for trade game comes back:) This is my first time to hold 2 or 3 long contracts for a long time,i still feel unsafe to hold long contracts.So next week,ill think of offseting some contracts based on news.

After staying away from trade game for a week,it doesnt remember me either.So this week is a good time for us to re-know each other more:)

Good luck to next week!

From last week, price kept decreasing for some reasons,which i thought maybe soon price would go up!So everyday i was thinking of going long!

Finally my “go long”dream came true this week,but for a short while!

10 of Oct,i read some news,heres my conclusion:

For corn: Price rallied by outside market,EU crisis seem stablize,so dollar will become cheaper and weaker,which means more and more export.Also i saw a spike in gold price leads to the gains in other commodity,including corn.(Actually i dont quite understand the linkage between gold and corn,so i posted a question in vista which nick just told me,there should some relationship between cooper and wheat,gold and corn…so that makes sense then.Thanks~)Morever,because of economic growth,demand increases,which needs greater use of fuel made from corn.Corn is oversold,and short covering.So for 10,corn price should be up by 10-12cents.

For soybean,basicallly the similar reason.Because Chinese market will reopen,which will boost demand,i guess soybean price would go up dramatically.Whats more,theres a canal expension,which improves competition of 44%of U.S soybean export.So i think its a good news for U.S export more soybean.However,major transportation infrastructive chanllenges limit the benefits….So if this canal expension is beneficial to export,we should wait and see then.Anyways,soybean price should be up by 10-15cents.

For wheat,news about drop in the value of dollar and oversold wheat also leads to wheat price grow.Also,good rain in Plains contributes to harvest,and warm weather persists over winter wheat area leads to early season growth.

So,for 10,news all mentioned price going up,but for me,i have been getting used to bid short all the time,i would rather wait one day to see if the price does go up.

On 11 of Oct.

For corn,good war, dry harvest weahter in midwest contributes to 33% complete corn harvest.But i read another news saying by Tuesday,corn price would decrease due to strengh in dollar and some reduction in harvest acreage.

For soybean,production yield is higher,and China buys a large quantity of soybean from U.S.

For wheat,USDA is expected to raise the forecast for global wheat suppliers and also rain in Plains contributes to harvest.

So all in all,price still has the trend to increase,so i bid long on 11,holding -2 contracts for corn.-1 soybean and -3wheat!

Then,price did goes up dramatically that day which i gained like 14000+profit that day:)

On 12 ,For corn,I know China buy a large amount of corn from U.S which drives up the price to limit.But price tumbled after government boosted estimate for global stokpile,since theres more supplies for foods,animal feed and ethanol.So i dont know if price should be up or down.

For soybean,uncertainty of if China import form US or south america cuts gains.For wheat,more stocks due to cuts in both domestic use and export.Also news from Russia to impose export tariff on grains,which wheat feeding condemned.However,corn kept steady.

So in the end i bid nothing for corn,but -1 for soybean and -1 wheat,turning out to be a bad idea since price decrease a lot….

So on13,i offset some contracts for these three crops,but im not sure if its the right thing,so i still leave one short for each commodity.

Thats it.Have a good holiday:)

wow it has been the forth week!!

This week,my margin is around 39000,sometimes higher,sometimes lower.But im tooooo risk-averse to hold what i gained!Come on,its just a game.its the same holding 39000 and -39000!!!I kept telling myself:Its a game,be more aggressive!!!

This week,what i tried to practise myself was ANALYSIS.To be honest,i still cant predict well,but i think im on the good way:)

On 30 of Sep,i didnt bid any,holding the old short contracts for these three commodities,which i gained a huge fortune(to me,its huge haha).So i was like even more risk-averse to bid,scaring of losing what i earned! From 30,the market price decreased dramatically,i thought maybe it was too low to bid any,maybe the wise thing to do was waiting for one more day to see the trend,if it continued bearish or would rebounce the next day.In the meantime,i read news knowing corn inventories still droped less and slow demand for crops used in food and animal feed.Whats more,EU debt criss is also a dominant factor affecting price.Here im listing some information i got from news.

3rd:

For corn:It seemed corn price rebounded a lil bit due to the open weather in corn belt leading to harvest,which made my mind turn into demand and supply immediately.So i guessed price woulde increase(also i thought price should increase a lil bit since it decreased this much!!)

For soybean:Market would rebound due to the favourable weather in midwest.However gains were being limited by outside market and increasing harverst pressure.Now concern about Greece’s debt crisis has pressured global and US finacial market…At the same time,fund long liquidation expected weakness in stock and strengh in dollar added to weakness(Actually i dont really understand long liquidation…..but i see weakness = =).I think because of Greece or EU debt crisis,people will turn to US dollar this safe haven,which appreciates dollar,making exports more expensive and decreasing demand.Then price decreased.During discussion with my classmates,i knew bad news,compared to good news,have a bigger influence on price.

For wheat:It seemed market for wheat was mixed.First due to spillover support from corn,wheat future rallied despite strength in dollar,which price should increase.On the other hand,domestic demand sluggish and needed frainfall in HRW wheat belt should decrease price….

Anyways,even with these information,i still prefered to wait one more day to make further action.

Based on 4th news,I knew China would import a record big amount of corn from US due to the shortfall left amount in China and continual growth of livestock farming.Then price would increase also drag wheat price up,since wheat is alternative to corn,theres a close linik between these two commodities.Another reason i guess price for corn would increase is the demand from ethanol plants.

So on 4th, i went short 1contract on corn,soybean should still decrease and went 1 long contract for wheat too.Howeve that day PRICE CONTINUED DECREASING.I was like:ohhh nooooo.i did read news,i did do some analysis…but how come!!!  I think maybe still the main reason is still bad news dominate the price…..

5th.for corn:because spurred demand from livestock and ethanol,and the reason China inports,price would increase.Basically its still the same reason as yesterday.for wheat,based on the same reason as yesterday,also central bank may take further step to sustain an economy recovery,i guess price would increase too.So i guess i should bid long(what i thought was price had already reached bottom.it should increase!!!it should be !!!)But that day,i forgot to hand in future game archive….turned out to be i bid nothing.But what i guessed was right on corn and wheat price!yahhh:)

6th…i was quite happy about my analysis on 5 and become more confident..whats more,i still feel like price would rebound…So i was quite aggressive to went long 2contracts for these three crops..however…..price remained the same for corn and soybean,wheat price decreased…..

I think what i should do is continuing analysis!Sometimes i really feel overwhelmed about economic phases…and dont know which news i should pay more attention to…But its really interesting to do this trade game,feel like im doing something really huge and professional hahaha and its soo cool to tell other friends who are not in this major about this, especially when i see their puzzle faces and hearing they are saying:wow!!!!

LOL!HAPPY LONG WEEKEND!!!!XD