After midterm,we come back to trade game again.After staying away from it for a week,i feel lost about market….I kept wondering what was going on when i can bid again…On Monday,i discussed with my team members about the weather condition,which seemed to be good for harvest.And it turned out to be right,as the news said”corn,wheat and soybean remain bearish with pressure from a rapid harvest in the U.S.”.however the price didnt fall as we expected.I felt lost…Then as i started to read more news,i realize the market is focused on the European situation.So thas’s why price increases during this week.
Before midterm,i still have -1 contract for each commodity,since the price incresed several times during last and this week,my margin balance didnt suffer a lot.So i still had 35000+ left.
On 25th.USAD said the quantity of soybean is less than expected,and market was bullish.So i went -1 for wheat and soybean.As for corn,i heard Chinese demand for corn was up,which means China would import a large amount corn from states,so i guess price would fall.Since i didnt know which factor would affect more on corn price,i didnt bid anything on corn.It turned out that price for soybean and corn decrease a little bit,and wheat price arised.All in all i lost 3000 profit that day.
From 26th.I knew China releases corn from government into market.However,this is not the main factor affecting price,what matters most is European situation.As European leaders boost the region’s rescue fund which sparked a rally in commodity market.At the same time,EU further measures to shore up US economy amounts to more quantitative easing of monetary policy by central bank.US economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year.I think this is the reason commodity markets have seen price strength this week.Morever,from reading news from twitter,i saw food price inflation is quite high,which might have some effect on price.
After witnessing market for a day,i went long -1 for three contracts on 27th.It was quite a successful day for me which i gained 5000+ . Gradually my feeling for trade game comes back:) This is my first time to hold 2 or 3 long contracts for a long time,i still feel unsafe to hold long contracts.So next week,ill think of offseting some contracts based on news.
After staying away from trade game for a week,it doesnt remember me either.So this week is a good time for us to re-know each other more:)
Good luck to next week!
Wow you do a lot of reserach from many regions, good job. If you share your links and I use them I’ll credit you for finding theinformation.
Thx nick:)
Basically i just write down some important notes while im reading news…and the news i read i share it on twitter….
maybe ill think about sharing links in my blog then:)
I think Yan got the right point. She said the prices would rally because the expiry dates are coming up. But this is not the most important reason. I think the global demand for corn increases (not just by import demand from China, but also the ethanol demand for corn?)…and actually, as your prediction, I also think soybean will go up because it got less stockpile and production seems not process well……..but it just dropped! But wheat…..which has less demand and more supply….it just sharply increased!
WHAT A TWIST.= =
Tasha!!!
Yes…the whole commodity market twisted…
I still cant find the dominant reason for price….and i also think we should see the impact of each news on price…
safe way to do is dont hold too many contracts..
thx for ur comment btw:)
I agree with you!
I think the european rescue plan boosts the market!
Yes!EU is the biggest reason..but not 100%
just like what Tasha said..its twisted haha
I just realize that each one of our class using different strategy. Even we read the same news but we take different importance level on them that’s why we made different prediction.
Anyhow, good job fancy by hold that much of money. And good luck for next week.
Hi Fancy,
cool blog this week, i agree with nick you are taking in a lot of information from many different regions. thats pretty awesome. i am looking at moving long this week, we should talk more monday about what some potential prices should be.
do you look at the spread or any tech indicators for your bids?