Ohh this is the last week for trade game,should i shed tears?  o.0 –> T.T

This week,i only bid three times.Keeping losing money but feeling very brave to follow gut to bid!

This week, my new strategy is hedging between comodities and between contracts,which means going long and short between different comodities and when offseting,dont offset thoroughly so that you can have long and short contracts at the same time to buffer your risk.

It did helped me ag little bit,like on monday,i had -3 long contracts in corn,but technical analysis predicted corn would be bearish which price would fall.So i wanted to offset my long contracts by taking 4 short ones.It turned out to be i did the right thing.But because my -3 contracts accounted for a large portion,i still lost some money.But this strategy did work a little bit to buffer the losing risk.

16th. I didnt bid anything on 15th,since i was watching the market trend for a day to think my next step.About corn,from the news i read from bloomberg,they mentioned due to harvest concern,corn price would increase.About soybean,i learned there was upward pressure on US dollar,which made US export less competitive,so i took -5 long contracts to offset my short 4 contracts.

Last night.I offset all my contracts.Yea,its done.Period.

What i learn from this trade game.

1.Find out your own strategy.

I still remeber the first a couple of weeks when i set my feet in news world..i felt soo overwhelmed and i overrespected the news posted online,so i got quite confused about different news for one same thing.So what you need to do is not threatened by all kinds of news,calm down,pick some from different perspectives,like from demand and supply,exchange rate.

Also like im quite risk-averse,i usually bid 1 or 2 contracts 3 max and hold contracts within 4.Offsetting frequently but not thoroughly worked great on me.Last 2 weekes,i tried to be brave to try out some risk loving method…Failure.

2.Be passionable and persistent.

Weeks before midterm,i was soooo excited to check news and do bidding,but because one week pause,i suddenly lost way what to do when returning to market.So,i think when in the future,by any chance to do shares or what,checking news and follow market should be like a habbit.

3.Calm down.

I remember one week i kept earning money,my balance went up from 30000+ right to 60000(wow thats my most brilliant history),which motivated me a looooooooooot.However,im not the boss of market,losing money is wayy to common.But it still took me one or two days to recover,keeping thinking:fake money ..fake money…fake money and its not yours..not yours not yours…

Last.I want to thank all the classmates ,TAs,Jim who helped me a lot with my strategy and margin balance calculating.Also i really appreciat those people who comment on my blogs(then my blog doesnt look very lonely;P)….oh…too sentimental now ….

I think ill still read everyones blogs and mine and also our twitter, soo many memories to reflect on.And it is such a nice and new adventure for me,just by saying future market and bid makes me sooo cool in front of my friends hahahha!

Also,im looking forwarding to next GAME!!!

Good luck to everyone and Thank you all again 🙂

Fancy

This week,my margin balance went negative overnite..and after i posted “join negative-margin club”,Tasha welcomed me with all her warm arms and told me to have a seat there. hahahaha!!!!!But when i looked close of my bid,i realize on 9th ,i sell my wheat @ 0…which obviously was a MISTAKE…so i dropped Javier a line to help me fix it…Then later,my margin balance was normal again.It teaches me a lesson which its never too much to be more careful.In simulated trade game,i have Javier (who likes humming “criminal” song) to help me,but in reality who can help me if i bid wrong by accident??

This week i only bid twice….thought to be more aggressive for the last two weeks,however when my balance became negative by accident,just wish i knew what to do later…

Andrew Chen told me that i didnt catch good timing to bid after reading news,so thast why i bid wrong even base on the same news..So i started to read news during night,after market close.Then news would be about prediction for the next day.

8th.

Corn:Corn marekt was trading low due to outside market pressure.

Soybean:Soybean market was trading lower due to strength in dollar.This news leaded to less export which pushed down price.

Wheat:Thanks to harvest rain which leads to strong harvest in Australia.It has big impact on record stock,boosting exportable supplies.I think this news might affect CBOT price.Then Brazil buys wheat amid concern over the cost of scheme,whose cancle would open the country up to even higher import.Also the cost of the scheme has provoked long standing concerns.

So on 8th.I went -2 long contracts for corn,1 short contract for soybean and -1 long contract for wheat.

Later that day,after market close,soybean price down due to the fact that traders expecting a government report Wednesday will show grow supplies and expecting USDA to increse soybean supplies due to weak export demand.As for wheat,its price went up due to higher amid worries about global supplies and ahead of Wedsday’s report.Also production of  red winter wheat crop decreases because of drought in Ukraine and rains delayi in Australia,which leads to lower harvest.

9th.

Corn:Corn has small harvest after drought,curbing an expansion in global supplies.Another important reason affect corn price is the drop in stockpie.This will push up corn price.

Before i bid,i read twitter news posted by Hossein about the released USDA report..I think corn,soybean price would go up whereas wheat price would go down.So i went long -2 and -3 contrats for corn and soybean and 2 short contracts for wheat.I was veryyyyy aggressive to bid 3 contracts normally i just bid 2 maximum…At that moment i was like:ohhh only one more week left…do something braveeee!

Maybe i was wayy too excited to be brave that i sold my wheat @ 0 by accident>.< ohhh

All in all,this week i lost 2 thousand in total.total balance is around 25000.After wandering around,it comes back to the original point.But i learned a lot during this experience.

What i gain is not the result.Its the scenery on the way that matters.

But dont wanna make stupid mistake again,lesson learned!

Fancy

Heyyyy !! how are u ? After midterms,finally feel the difference between week and weekend lol:)

This week i bid forth times total..but…keep on losing money:(

10.31

I read news that corn price decreased since rally in dollar erope prospects for U.S exports,which reduces investment of commodities.Also,due to bigger crops in Ukraine and the EU are intensifying competition for U.S export market.EU normally is a net importer of corn,but now he is exporting the grain at the fastedst pace in at least seven years.

As for soybean,the price dropped lowest .Argentine were blocking access to the country’s grain ports which will become a supportive factor for price.Also ,theres a strong correlation between China pork production and soybean production,urban population consume more and more oilseed.Morever.China accounts for 60% of world soybean trade.Its demand is a key element in shaping market’s view on price.n this way,soybean price should go up.

Wheat price should fall too as price signal expected substitution demand for feed to wheat.

So i went short 3 contracts for corn soybean and wheat,offseting my long positions before but leaving one short contract for corn and soybean.

However that day,i lost 10000+.Price did decrease,however the price i bid was lower than closing price.And also since what i had before and what i offset were too many contracts..like 2 and 3 contracts for each commodity.So thats why i lost a lot..lesson learned!

11.1 new month yahh!

I bid nothing today after losing a lot money,i thought it would be better to stop to see what is going on in the market.Price for corn and wheat increased a little bit whereas soybean decreased a little bit…

Later i know from news that for corn,much of the day the price decreased due to strong value in U.S dollar.Also weakness in stock market as well as EU debt situation drag down global economy.But later session,short-covering push up price.As for wheat,support from corn push up wheat demand.In the meantime rain and snow in some HRW wheat belt slowed wheat harvest.Morever Egypt bought wheat from Russia due to cheap shipping cost.

11.2

Corn,due to low export,price decreased.For wheat, US export decreased due to competition from black sea region.What matters most is EU trouble slowed agriculture commodities boom.But i went long for corn and wheat,trying to offset my short ones.Not much news about soybean market.based on the decreasing trend,i went short for soybean.However it turned out to be a wrong decision:(

11.3

I went short for corn and wheat and did nothing to soybean.Since i always think better to bid short when you are not sure about market since bad news are always have bigger influence on price.However,this week,the price was exactly the opposite as what i thought.Yes,price went up for these three commodities..Later i heard it was becuz weak in US dollar…

I was quite depressed this week,since at beginning i lost 10000!!!!ohhhh its just fake money,simulated trade game which can have a big effect on me..Cant imagine if i use my own money bidding what gonna happen if i lose 10000 overnight….So what i should learn this week is quickly bounce back after losing 10000 and change my attitute to MORE CAREFULLY READ NEWS and be more aggressive and passionable:)

GOOD LUCK!!!