Heyyyy !! how are u ? After midterms,finally feel the difference between week and weekend lol:)
This week i bid forth times total..but…keep on losing money:(
10.31
I read news that corn price decreased since rally in dollar erope prospects for U.S exports,which reduces investment of commodities.Also,due to bigger crops in Ukraine and the EU are intensifying competition for U.S export market.EU normally is a net importer of corn,but now he is exporting the grain at the fastedst pace in at least seven years.
As for soybean,the price dropped lowest .Argentine were blocking access to the country’s grain ports which will become a supportive factor for price.Also ,theres a strong correlation between China pork production and soybean production,urban population consume more and more oilseed.Morever.China accounts for 60% of world soybean trade.Its demand is a key element in shaping market’s view on price.n this way,soybean price should go up.
Wheat price should fall too as price signal expected substitution demand for feed to wheat.
So i went short 3 contracts for corn soybean and wheat,offseting my long positions before but leaving one short contract for corn and soybean.
However that day,i lost 10000+.Price did decrease,however the price i bid was lower than closing price.And also since what i had before and what i offset were too many contracts..like 2 and 3 contracts for each commodity.So thats why i lost a lot..lesson learned!
11.1 new month yahh!
I bid nothing today after losing a lot money,i thought it would be better to stop to see what is going on in the market.Price for corn and wheat increased a little bit whereas soybean decreased a little bit…
Later i know from news that for corn,much of the day the price decreased due to strong value in U.S dollar.Also weakness in stock market as well as EU debt situation drag down global economy.But later session,short-covering push up price.As for wheat,support from corn push up wheat demand.In the meantime rain and snow in some HRW wheat belt slowed wheat harvest.Morever Egypt bought wheat from Russia due to cheap shipping cost.
11.2
Corn,due to low export,price decreased.For wheat, US export decreased due to competition from black sea region.What matters most is EU trouble slowed agriculture commodities boom.But i went long for corn and wheat,trying to offset my short ones.Not much news about soybean market.based on the decreasing trend,i went short for soybean.However it turned out to be a wrong decision:(
11.3
I went short for corn and wheat and did nothing to soybean.Since i always think better to bid short when you are not sure about market since bad news are always have bigger influence on price.However,this week,the price was exactly the opposite as what i thought.Yes,price went up for these three commodities..Later i heard it was becuz weak in US dollar…
I was quite depressed this week,since at beginning i lost 10000!!!!ohhhh its just fake money,simulated trade game which can have a big effect on me..Cant imagine if i use my own money bidding what gonna happen if i lose 10000 overnight….So what i should learn this week is quickly bounce back after losing 10000 and change my attitute to MORE CAREFULLY READ NEWS and be more aggressive and passionable:)
GOOD LUCK!!!
Hey, Fancy! Seems you are so sad about losing money. Don’t be sad haha~we are all in negative club, plz feel free to join us! JUST KIDDING!
Back to the topic of trading. Personally, as what I learnt for this trading game, I would like to look at a further trend for the prices. We all know we are not playing real money now, we are here to learn, so I think we are better to look at how prices would fluctuate in a long term trend. You can’t be told if the prices going down today would or wouldn’t rise back and even higher tomorrow.
Maybe we just stay calm when we see some bad news about the prices, we should search more about longer trend. Just like me, the first few weeks, I was so nervous. I first went short, which was actually a right strategy, but I saw some news about prices rebounded, and I was too nervous then offset and went long………then I ended up with negative.
I might be wrong, but that what I learnt.
Hey Tasha!
Yes.i think ur right.but i always think the trend of price should decrease…so once i see price increasing i just take it for granted that price would decreases the next day…maybe i benefited too much from holding short before haha
Yan just shared a strategy which we should look at the settle price for a few days to know the future price trend!(thats how i understand) hope it s right and can help us haha
Hi Fancy,
I think I know how you feel…even though it is just an exercise, seeing a big loss in the account is not a pleasant experience! You’ve been an aggressive investor this week, I think. It is impressive to see that you kept up with news and other info in the market. You’ve been working hard! Hope you recover your loss soon!
Yijeong
Yiyeong!
Thx for ur comment:)
Haha i already recover just hope next week i can earn some money!
Im training myself to read news and do some analysis…sometimes good sometimes bad…good luck to our last two weeks trade game!
haha… I think when u work as a real trader, u will be much more prudent. However, the big loss will still happen as long as u become a little bit careless. That’s why the trader’s job is so stressful. Some of them will turn to millionaires, but it means that some of them will become the beggars living under the bridge, for it is a zero-game. Anyway, have a nice weekend. dont be bothered too much by our simulation game.
hahahha zeng!!!!
yes….no wonder they are sooo stressed out…i would rather to earn less moeny with more secure haha but this is becuz i just suffer a lot loss ..but i think sometimes when i earn a lot of money i would be brave to bid more!just not in a good luck this week..RP wenti!
good luck to everyone next week then！
Hey Fancy!
Sometimes news can not help us to predict market, because there are some criteria which we are not able to see. Also some events happen while we are sleeping. So, don’t worry about that.
This week I took price rebounding into account when I was bidding. Usually after a big increase (decrease) we will have a decrease (increase) in prices, specially when there is not important news.
Take Care!
Thx for ur comment Hossein!
So ..hmmmmm what else should we rely on besides news?i think my source of predicting price is quite boring and dry,basically just news and sometimes MACD but im not very good at checking it so sometimes i just read news…any suggestion?thx
I think trading experiment is what we do not have.
Hi Fancy,
It looks like you found a few good articles of information this week, but might have just had poor timing for the bids that you made. You had mentioned that soy would increase in price, and it did. I was able to make a good amount of money on soy from those increases, but I knew not to get greedy, and quit as soon as I made a profit. The problem with long term positions (and especially in this game) is that any big news could swing prices one way or another, and things could get much worse before they get better. One of the biggest lessons that I’ve learned from this game so far is to know when to cut losses, and when to leave with your gains. Even when you lose something today, you’ll have another opportunity to make it all back, as long as you keep up with information, and time your bids accordingly.
Ha Fancy, don’t be so depressed about losing money. You know it’s all about learning and I believe you really did a good job in our program!
You know market in adjust phase is really hard to predict, that’s why we loss money in those 2 previous weeks.
I believe the market will keep rally for a while. Just be patient and more cautions. Hope you feel better in the next week’s blog.
Hey Fancy,
first of all I want to say that thank you so much for your comments in my blog almost every week!!!~I really feel so sweet when I saw your comments on my blog^^
I can totally understand your feeling since I tried once to lose around $9,000 in a day too…aii…and sometimes, I felt that doing nothing is better than doing anything since we always lost more when we bade more…however, you know what? I think you have achieved in using the tools that Jim taught in the class to analyze the news…so what does the money matter?just let it lose and get something more substantial (the knowledge)~
I think using your knowledge, you will earn more real money in the future^^
Good luck for biddings in the future:)