wow it has been the forth week!!

This week,my margin is around 39000,sometimes higher,sometimes lower.But im tooooo risk-averse to hold what i gained!Come on,its just a game.its the same holding 39000 and -39000!!!I kept telling myself:Its a game,be more aggressive!!!

This week,what i tried to practise myself was ANALYSIS.To be honest,i still cant predict well,but i think im on the good way:)

On 30 of Sep,i didnt bid any,holding the old short contracts for these three commodities,which i gained a huge fortune(to me,its huge haha).So i was like even more risk-averse to bid,scaring of losing what i earned! From 30,the market price decreased dramatically,i thought maybe it was too low to bid any,maybe the wise thing to do was waiting for one more day to see the trend,if it continued bearish or would rebounce the next day.In the meantime,i read news knowing corn inventories still droped less and slow demand for crops used in food and animal feed.Whats more,EU debt criss is also a dominant factor affecting price.Here im listing some information i got from news.

3rd:

For corn:It seemed corn price rebounded a lil bit due to the open weather in corn belt leading to harvest,which made my mind turn into demand and supply immediately.So i guessed price woulde increase(also i thought price should increase a lil bit since it decreased this much!!)

For soybean:Market would rebound due to the favourable weather in midwest.However gains were being limited by outside market and increasing harverst pressure.Now concern about Greece’s debt crisis has pressured global and US finacial market…At the same time,fund long liquidation expected weakness in stock and strengh in dollar added to weakness(Actually i dont really understand long liquidation…..but i see weakness = =).I think because of Greece or EU debt crisis,people will turn to US dollar this safe haven,which appreciates dollar,making exports more expensive and decreasing demand.Then price decreased.During discussion with my classmates,i knew bad news,compared to good news,have a bigger influence on price.

For wheat:It seemed market for wheat was mixed.First due to spillover support from corn,wheat future rallied despite strength in dollar,which price should increase.On the other hand,domestic demand sluggish and needed frainfall in HRW wheat belt should decrease price….

Anyways,even with these information,i still prefered to wait one more day to make further action.

Based on 4th news,I knew China would import a record big amount of corn from US due to the shortfall left amount in China and continual growth of livestock farming.Then price would increase also drag wheat price up,since wheat is alternative to corn,theres a close linik between these two commodities.Another reason i guess price for corn would increase is the demand from ethanol plants.

So on 4th, i went short 1contract on corn,soybean should still decrease and went 1 long contract for wheat too.Howeve that day PRICE CONTINUED DECREASING.I was like:ohhh nooooo.i did read news,i did do some analysis…but how come!!!  I think maybe still the main reason is still bad news dominate the price…..

5th.for corn:because spurred demand from livestock and ethanol,and the reason China inports,price would increase.Basically its still the same reason as yesterday.for wheat,based on the same reason as yesterday,also central bank may take further step to sustain an economy recovery,i guess price would increase too.So i guess i should bid long(what i thought was price had already reached bottom.it should increase!!!it should be !!!)But that day,i forgot to hand in future game archive….turned out to be i bid nothing.But what i guessed was right on corn and wheat price!yahhh:)

6th…i was quite happy about my analysis on 5 and become more confident..whats more,i still feel like price would rebound…So i was quite aggressive to went long 2contracts for these three crops..however…..price remained the same for corn and soybean,wheat price decreased…..

I think what i should do is continuing analysis!Sometimes i really feel overwhelmed about economic phases…and dont know which news i should pay more attention to…But its really interesting to do this trade game,feel like im doing something really huge and professional hahaha and its soo cool to tell other friends who are not in this major about this, especially when i see their puzzle faces and hearing they are saying:wow!!!!

LOL!HAPPY LONG WEEKEND!!!!XD