From last week, price kept decreasing for some reasons,which i thought maybe soon price would go up!So everyday i was thinking of going long!

Finally my “go long”dream came true this week,but for a short while!

10 of Oct,i read some news,heres my conclusion:

For corn: Price rallied by outside market,EU crisis seem stablize,so dollar will become cheaper and weaker,which means more and more export.Also i saw a spike in gold price leads to the gains in other commodity,including corn.(Actually i dont quite understand the linkage between gold and corn,so i posted a question in vista which nick just told me,there should some relationship between cooper and wheat,gold and corn…so that makes sense then.Thanks~)Morever,because of economic growth,demand increases,which needs greater use of fuel made from corn.Corn is oversold,and short covering.So for 10,corn price should be up by 10-12cents.

For soybean,basicallly the similar reason.Because Chinese market will reopen,which will boost demand,i guess soybean price would go up dramatically.Whats more,theres a canal expension,which improves competition of 44%of U.S soybean export.So i think its a good news for U.S export more soybean.However,major transportation infrastructive chanllenges limit the benefits….So if this canal expension is beneficial to export,we should wait and see then.Anyways,soybean price should be up by 10-15cents.

For wheat,news about drop in the value of dollar and oversold wheat also leads to wheat price grow.Also,good rain in Plains contributes to harvest,and warm weather persists over winter wheat area leads to early season growth.

So,for 10,news all mentioned price going up,but for me,i have been getting used to bid short all the time,i would rather wait one day to see if the price does go up.

On 11 of Oct.

For corn,good war, dry harvest weahter in midwest contributes to 33% complete corn harvest.But i read another news saying by Tuesday,corn price would decrease due to strengh in dollar and some reduction in harvest acreage.

For soybean,production yield is higher,and China buys a large quantity of soybean from U.S.

For wheat,USDA is expected to raise the forecast for global wheat suppliers and also rain in Plains contributes to harvest.

So all in all,price still has the trend to increase,so i bid long on 11,holding -2 contracts for corn.-1 soybean and -3wheat!

Then,price did goes up dramatically that day which i gained like 14000+profit that day:)

On 12 ,For corn,I know China buy a large amount of corn from U.S which drives up the price to limit.But price tumbled after government boosted estimate for global stokpile,since theres more supplies for foods,animal feed and ethanol.So i dont know if price should be up or down.

For soybean,uncertainty of if China import form US or south america cuts gains.For wheat,more stocks due to cuts in both domestic use and export.Also news from Russia to impose export tariff on grains,which wheat feeding condemned.However,corn kept steady.

So in the end i bid nothing for corn,but -1 for soybean and -1 wheat,turning out to be a bad idea since price decrease a lot….

So on13,i offset some contracts for these three crops,but im not sure if its the right thing,so i still leave one short for each commodity.

Thats it.Have a good holiday:)