I’m Back in the Green!!!

Happy thanksgiving!

First of all, enjoy the long weekend everyone, even though it’s not a happily spent long holiday for everyone (students, for example, we got midterms coming!) but hey enjoy the turkey! It only happens once a year ;p

Okay, now back to business,

Market this week is pretty calm, no drastic changes whatsoever until today! Corn price went down, BIG TIME! (good for me because it brings me back to the green 🙂 ) Figure 1 shows my current position to date and figure 2 shows my portfolio summary.

Figure 1. Open position

Figure 2. Portfolio summary

The Weekly Recap!

1. Trading in the Dark

As I said last week in my previous post, Oct 11th, which is today, is supposedly the time for USDA to release the important monthly crop, but as you all know, the government is still firm on continuing the shutdown. This is the first in 40 years that traders have to trade grains in the dark with no USDA report. Dennis Collins, a director in Trilateral Inc in Chicago, pictures this as a pilot flying a plane then suddenly the flight controls goes down.

Traders are trading with a blindfold

There is one advantage of this issue, which is low price volatility as traders chose to stand on the sideline and not speculating much. On previous post, I expected that price will go down, however, Kim Anderson in South West Farm Press stated that the absence of USDA report will have little effect in price. She said USDA report is generally the one that’s considered unbiased, accurate and consistent compared to commercial report, but in the absence of it, the market will not stop. It will continue to look for data, even though they have to use the commercial one. She also predicts that price volatility will peak after the shutdown is over if the data speculated is completely different with USDA report. So, we better watch out!

2. Bullish Wheat, Bearish Corn

Wheat price is staying strong causing me to lose money all week long as the demand of wheat from China is still high ( ;( ), however, corn price went down today. This is said to be the lowest in three-year for corn as the dry weather is speculated to help a record harvest in US, a major producer of corn. Moreover, biofuel mandate that has been one of the reasons of high price in corn, as government is trying to scale back its mandate. EU, for example, is going to cap their biofuel originated from food source to 5% by 2020.

This week market is even boring than last week,

Feeling meh?

but, looking at the bright side, no stressful day caused by the price spikes ;p

Anyhow, I’m planning to try a new trick next week, hope it works!

Have a happy thanksgiving once again fellas! I’m gonna go get my turkey!

Cheers 🙂