Recently, Russia’s influence and projection of power over its surrounding states was ratified and granted new significance, at least apparently, by referendums held in Crimea, the results of which illustrate that 95% of Crimean voters support the reunification of their small but strategic peninsula with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Though the legitimacy of the referendum has been criticized and condemned as illegal by the Ukraine and Western powers, most notably the United States, the apparent vote count does indeed illustrate that the people of the Crimean peninsula overwhelmingly support a return to Russia.
To my understanding, the overwhelming support for reunification in Crimea is not unexpected. After all, though the Crimean peninsula is bound to Ukraine by land, the region shares very little historical, political and ethnic ties to the country of Ukraine. For example, the majority of the peninsula’s population (58%) is ethnic Russian, and, in total, ethnic Ukrainians only constitute 24% of the population. Even during the era of the Soviet Union, of which the Ukraine was a part, Crimea was never considered to be a part of the Ukraine, but, with the fall of the Soviet Union it was simply designated part of the Ukraine, one of the many new countries formed by the fracturing of the USSR. Crimea has only had ties to the Ukraine for just over 20 years, and the historical circumstances that saw it join the Ukraine and the demography of the region suggest that it cannot fully be considered Ukrainian, at least to the extent that much of the rest of the country is. While I may not personally condone Russian aggression and power projection in the strategic peninsula due to these inconsistencies between Crimea and the rest of the Ukraine, I can certainly understand why support for reunification is so high the peninsula.
Now that the referendum has passed overwhelmingly, I am compelled to speculate as to what the eventual outcome of the situation will be. Though I would be dismayed to see Russia reap the benefits of such aggression and violation of state sovereignty, I would not be surprised to see Crimea join Russia eventually. Western powers, including the Ukraine itself may have denounced the vote as illegitimate, and no doubt a level of corruption has festered beneath the entire referendum process, but no country or organization, notably the EU, the UN and NATO, will contest Russia militarily for the peninsula, and diplomatic and economic sanctions are scarcely a thorn in Putin’s side. Perhaps Crimea will not directly become a part of sovereign Russia, but it certainly will become a vassal to Moscow regardless.
This entire situation evokes the question as to what Russia’s true goals and motives lie behind their aggressive assertions into the sovereign nation of the Ukraine. Obviously Russia’s true motives are cloaked behind Moscow’s rhetoric stating that Russian troops have moved into the region to protect ethnic Russians from the violent protests that have consumed Ukraine. To my mind, Russia has two chief motives for projecting their power into Crimea. First, Crimea is an area of great strategic significance as, through the major port of Sevastopol, Russia would gain a large-scale foothold in the Black Sea, and control over many of the oil shipping lines that run from the Ukrainian interior to the Black Sea at Sevastopol. However, this motive is certainly subordinate to Russia’s largest motive, which I feel will guide its foreign policy throughout the 21st century, which is the reestablishment and reassertion of Russia as a global power, particularly through the vassalization, if not direct conquest, of the former Soviet states. A past example of this brand of foreign policy may be noted in the situation of Georgia, which Russia invaded several years ago, and only agreed to withdraw if the Georgian government would follow the explicit instructions and will of Moscow. Russia wants its empire back.
The situation in the Crimea, particularly surrounding the referendum, is not entirely unexpected and indicates that Crimea may indeed renounce the Ukraine and reunify with Russia. Russia aggression in the area is not only based upon the peninsula’s strategic significance, but it also indicative of the guiding theme of Russian foreign policy. Russia will continue to assert itself over its former vassal states, attempting to gain the status of a global power. While we may not exactly be on the edge of a second Cold War, the situation in the Crimea indicates that Russia wants to be a key player on the global stage, and that it is back in the business of empire building.