Abstract

Predicting species range changes as a result of climate change has been an integral part of forestry conservation strategies, and much of the focus in western North America has been on economically important conifers. Recently, forest management strategies have taken a more holistic approach, recognizing the ecological importance of broad leaf trees and other plant species to overall ecosystem health. In particular, A. macrophyllum (broadleaf maple) has been shown to play a significant role in biodiversity and soil characteristics in Pacific coastal forests. To date, little work has been done in predicting how the geographic range of A. macrophyllum will change in response to climate change. This project aims to address this gap by using a random forest classification model to predict the response of A. macrophyllum under a number of future climate scenarios. Overall, the model indicates that we can expect significant eastward expansion of the range of A. macrophyllum into interior forests in southern BC, Washington and Oregon as well as northward expansion along river valleys.

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