Conclusion & Discussion

The results indicate that A. macrophyllum is very resilient to climate change, and that it is likely to become more prominent in interior forests of western North America. This may have implications for biodiversity, soil characteristics and response to disturbances such as wildfire in these regions. There are conflicting theories about the impact this species has on more vulnerable conifers, and thus the impact of a potential invasion of A. macrophyllum into interior forests remains unclear.

There are a number of limitations that could impact the model predictions. The use of pseudo-absence points is not ideal, predicting based on climate is inherently uncertain, and there are other factors related to plant physiology and actual dispersal mechanisms that are not considered in this model. Additionally, there is some evidence that accuracy assessments from cross-validation are not sufficient to assess extrapolation accuracy, and thus predictions made on new input datasets may not be as accurate as the initial model.

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