My Focus
Glaciers are stabilizers of our climate and a great indicator in the North of pressing Climate Change, and historically have been the first to react. This project hopes to present the dire situation of our glaciers by modelling the most suitable regions of Glacier Growth in BC from 1961-2100, through five 30-year normal maps. I hypothesize that the majority of the glaciers in BC are in a vulnerable state, and the further north glaciers are, the more vulnerable they are to climate change over time. This project can be a tool used by the provincial government of BC to advise against developments near vulnerable glaciers, and for climate change scientists who want to use decay maps to predict glacier decay effects on the climate in the future.
Study Objectives
- Model Glacier Growth in Past and Future to present Glacier’s future struggles
- Create a map that can be referred to by the Provincial government
- Create a model that other climate scientists can utilize or reference
Background Info
To model Glacier growth, one must first understand factors that affect glacier accumulation (growth and ablation (melt). Glacier’s follow a mass balance change, one of accumulation in the winter through winter snowfall, and ablation in the summer due to melting temperatures. If accumulation in the winter has a higher mass than the mass melted in the summer, than the glacier advances/grows, and vice versa for glacier retreat/decay. Glacier growth therefore favours high amounts (mm) of snowfall in the winter, and low temperatures in the summer. Other than winter precipitation as snow, and summer temperatures, there are other factors.
Land Elevation plays an important role in glacier dynamics, due to altitude affecting temperature and a negative lapse rate. As altitudes increase, temperatures tend to decrease, therefore increasing snow as precipitation. That is why cirque glaciers and other high-altitude glacier types are present throughout the year, due to their high altitude without exposure to summer heat. Glacier growth therefore favours higher elevations.
Slope, Aspect, and Coastal Distance are the other three factors that affect glacier growth that this model will include. Slope affects the glacier movement speed and thickness. With steeper slopes comes thinner glaciers because the glacier moves faster, and has less time to accumulate thickness in a static spot. Glacier Accumulation therefore favours slopes that are less steep.
Aspect refers to the direction a slope is facing. This affects the solar-input towards the glacier, which has a high albedo due to being white and reflective. Southern aspects have higher solar-inputs, while northern aspects have lower solar-inputs, therefore glacier growth has a higher suitability towards northerly directions.
Coastal Distance affects the amount of precipitation. The closer one is to the coast/ocean, the higher the amount of precipitation a region experiences due to coastal winds and weather systems. Therefore, glacier growth favours close proximity to the Coast.