In this week I have been using the same source of information from the previous weeks. They are:

http://farmfutures.com

http://www.agrimoney.com

http://www.grainews.ca

http://www.cmegroup.com

http://www.weather.com

This week on Friday I traded two soybean contracts, it was quite successful since I made some profits.

Holding 6 – short on S3F                  mark to market

price in:       1457.00
today’s price:  1451.25
committed:      $2700.00
gain/loss:      $287.50

Holding 7 – short on S3F                 mark to market
price in:       1457.00
today’s price:  1451.25
committed:      $2700.00
gain/loss:      $287.50

Ending balance as of 11-09-2012,

Position Value: $5975.00
Cash Available: $29783.76
Equity:         $35758.76
Realized Gains: $-4817.50

On Friday the USDA’s supply and demand report was expected, so everyone was expecting volatility in the grain prices. I decided to go short soybean contracts because I knew that the soybean prices would be down since the last report was quite positive and as well as other forecasts made by private companies such as Informa Economics, Inc.

The soybeans were down on Friday after USDA announced its estimate for soybean harvest; it was more than expected by analysts.

The USDA increased its estimate on the soybeans up from 2.86 billion bushels to 2.971 billion bushels. Also, according to USDA’s report the global soybean stockpiles will be higher than anticipated, so it is increased to 60.02 million metric tons.

In the week ahead

The corn and soybean traders will continue to follow news on weather forecasts for grain-growing regions in South America.  Also, Ukraine and Russia’s crop conditions will be on monitor as well as North American’s since these countries are main exporter of wheat. In addition there will be USDA’s weekly crop progress report and export data.

What I will be doing

In last week I was writing that I would learn the technical analysis, so for that Andrew’s presentation was very useful. I will continue working on the technical analysis and try to apply it this week.

Furthermore, we have an assignment #5 in which the question 4 on technical analysis, so there is an opportunity to learn more about it.

This week I have been looking for new source of information to enhance my understanding of commodity market, so I have come up with two sources that might be interesting for some who are interested on news overall on market.

There is one website called “FOREXPROS financial markets worldwide”.  This website is not only on commodity futures but also on other financial markets, thus I have found it very comprehensive if one wants to read some interesting news on financial market.

Especially, I recommend an article “After Sandy Commodities Switch Focus To US Election” at “http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/after-sandy-commodities-switch-focus-to-us-election-142237” in the section “Comments”. This article describes all recent events on financial and commodity markets that the beginning of week has started on hurricane Sandy that the gasoline prices have gone up then the next event was USA’s updates on employment that pushed the dollar and stocks up. It is said that the next focus will be on November 6, 2012 USA’s election. Also, this article provides an interesting data on performance of sectors in 2012.

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The data was taken from the website “http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/after-sandy-commodities-switch-focus-to-us-election-142237”

Another source is “http://www.agriview.com/app/markets/futures/”.

Well, the midterms are over, so now there is a little bit more time to focus on trading. Thus, I have a few goals for the coming weeks.

This week I have traded two short contracts on corn and wheat because I have been trading only soybeans since I wanted to learn more about soybean futures and soybean as a commodity. Now I want to focus on two commodities: corn and wheat, therefore, to do some market analyses.

Furthermore, besides reading news I want to learn the basics of technical analyses because today I was reading the cool source of information recommended by Ishrat, so I understand that the technical analyse is another great tool to predict the future instead of looking at current price movements due to daily news because the price cycles have pattern to repeat.

In addition to learning corn and wheat markets and to get familiar with technical analyses, I would like to learn the limit order and options futures. I have tried the market and spread order, but I still don’t know anything about limit order, so in order to be familiar with basics of futures market I think it is necessary to learn about this trading type.

Briefly, I would like to enhance my comprehension on commodity futures, thus corn and wheat market analyses, technical analyses, limit order, and option futures are my goals for the coming weeks.

Good luck!

The last week I closed two contracts on soybeans and wanted to trade a new commodity and make some profit like my classmates. However, my attempt was unsuccessful. On Thursday I went sell two short corn and wheat contracts since the grain market was down. Thus, I ended up with equity balance of $35535.52 and I incurred loss of (-150) on wheat and gain of (+25) on corn such an anecdotic situation.

So what has happened in the market?

Overall, the grain market was down on Friday with expectation of plentiful harvest for soybeans and corn and less demand from buyers.

The market was affected by employment data and uncertainty of upcoming elections in USA that pushed the US’s dollar up. As a result, the grain prices were down since currency appreciation has a negative impact on export, making commodities less attractive for overseas buyers.

Furthermore, due to forecast of Informa Economics, the corn was down since it is forecasted at 10. 738 billion bushels relatively up from the USDA’s October forecast of 10.706 billion bushels.

However, the wheat prices were up on Friday because of disruption of global supply. It is announced that Ukraine will ban export of wheat from November 15. Therefore, it is expected that the reduction of supply from Ukraine would increase demand for USA’s wheat.

The focus of the market for the next week

The adverse weather is expected in South hemisphere, so next week soybean traders will follow weather forecast while wheat traders will focus on crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine since there is an expectation of export restrictions by these countries, as a result the  USA’s and Canada’s supply of wheat will be on fortune.

Not only the weather and crop conditions will interest traders but also upcoming USDA’s report, so on Monday there will be USDA’s weekly crop progress report, on Thursday export report, and on Friday supply and demand report.

In the light of all these events, the next week is going to be full of ups and downs.

Reference

http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures—weekly-outlook:-november-5—9-240264