The last week I closed two contracts on soybeans and wanted to trade a new commodity and make some profit like my classmates. However, my attempt was unsuccessful. On Thursday I went sell two short corn and wheat contracts since the grain market was down. Thus, I ended up with equity balance of $35535.52 and I incurred loss of (-150) on wheat and gain of (+25) on corn such an anecdotic situation.

So what has happened in the market?

Overall, the grain market was down on Friday with expectation of plentiful harvest for soybeans and corn and less demand from buyers.

The market was affected by employment data and uncertainty of upcoming elections in USA that pushed the US’s dollar up. As a result, the grain prices were down since currency appreciation has a negative impact on export, making commodities less attractive for overseas buyers.

Furthermore, due to forecast of Informa Economics, the corn was down since it is forecasted at 10. 738 billion bushels relatively up from the USDA’s October forecast of 10.706 billion bushels.

However, the wheat prices were up on Friday because of disruption of global supply. It is announced that Ukraine will ban export of wheat from November 15. Therefore, it is expected that the reduction of supply from Ukraine would increase demand for USA’s wheat.

The focus of the market for the next week

The adverse weather is expected in South hemisphere, so next week soybean traders will follow weather forecast while wheat traders will focus on crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine since there is an expectation of export restrictions by these countries, as a result the  USA’s and Canada’s supply of wheat will be on fortune.

Not only the weather and crop conditions will interest traders but also upcoming USDA’s report, so on Monday there will be USDA’s weekly crop progress report, on Thursday export report, and on Friday supply and demand report.

In the light of all these events, the next week is going to be full of ups and downs.

Reference

http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures—weekly-outlook:-november-5—9-240264