Divergence in US consumption and imports. Us imports have contracted although retail sales has been sustaining. In the long run, this cannot last. Sooner or later, inventories will fall in US and consumers will have to switch to imported goods, raw or finished.
US consumer disposable income has been bad. The only support in the resilience in spending is only due to the falling of savings rate. But as we all know, given the already low US savings rate, it is questionable how much and how long US consumers can sustain.