The Way Ahead
I will sell contract of soybean.I will do nothing about contract of corn because the different trends of the report prediction and the future price.
It is difficult to undertake due to lack of speculation theme, and speculators continued reduction of the CBOT soybean long positions. It was triggered by the U.S. soybean harvest decreasing the price gradually become a downtrend in market.
USDA report in October estimated world soybean stockswas around 57.56 million tons, 54.79 million tons ,higher than the previous year. World soybean supply and demand relationship in 2012 will turn into a slightly loose.So the increase trend will end up right away. U.S. soybean export sales are big, which become a major factor in the market supressing the short-term rebound. However, the U.S. soybean pre-sale is strong in the early stage , the subsequent export slow down.We may find it lack factors effectively stimulating the market prices.
Currently, the South American soybean sowing weather condition is good except for the Brazilian north-central partial drought. With the disapaerence of La Nina phenomenon, high yield is just around the corner. The remaining influence of the financial crisis on the global economymake the market lack incentive of rise. The demand for soybean oil remains stable, but difficult to grow substantially. And the United States in 2013 soybean acreage expand,and it is predicted world soybean stocks will rebound.
So soybean prices in the long-term downward trend has been consolidated.