For the last two weeks, I have noticed significant currency effects at play. I’d like to read into this a little more for future trading decisions. For the coming weeks, as I check for analysis of other grain prices for substitution effects on my chosen commodity, I’ll also be looking into trends and expectations of the dollar because it seems to exert a great deal of influence over commodity markets.
Moreover, I’d also like to understand better why and when commodity pullouts take place. I’d like to explore whether I am right in thinking that a rise in prices can soon after be followed by a decline as traders lock in their profits. So far, I have been assuming that the timing of this cannot be predicted, but one can research the price levels at which the price trend has been seen to reverse, and perhaps draw some conclusions from that.
I am also considering holding long term positions in the future – positions held over weeks or even the remaining month. The reason is that I find myself quite confident about my trading decisions (although much less so about Tradesim!), given my analysis of the news reports I read. I may do this starting next week, or the one after that.
2 replies on “Week 6: The Road Ahead”
Hey Ishrat! Really enjoyed reading~
I can tell from your blog that you have a very serious attitude towards this trading game. You are really thinking about the market mechanism and trying to make improvement step by step.
As to the currency, I also noticed that it can be a big market mover. I wanted to do some research on it, but often dropped the plan due to busyness or laziness. I will appreciate it if you can share some of your findings with me after you complete your research.
By the way, why do you think the market will tend to be bullish in the long term? Look at the prices now.They are all green! 🙂
Again, nice work! Hope you get what you want next week and,of course, in the long term!
Mike
Confidence is important in investment process, I think. I’ll be looking forward to seeing the result. Thanks for sharing.