In this website, I can find data, news and analysis report. It is useful for me to make a decision. I really like the articles in this website, it is very easy for me to know what going on in future market.
http://www.wikinvest.com/futures/Soybean_Futures
The second website is the agrimoney website, in this website I can find the commodities and market information.
http://www.agrimoney.com/1/commodities/
According to the situation of this week, heavy selling and large inventories will leading the soybean price decrease. Also, form the CME website, I get soybean bar chart, I think the recently trend is like head and shoulder pattern, therefore, I think next few weeks, the soybean price will decrease, next week I will choose short position soybean contract. In addition, I will pay my attention on soybean news in the next few days to make a final decision.
(Bar chart link: http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html?code=ZSF3&title=January_2013_Soybean&type=p)
References:
1.http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html code=ZSF3&title=January_2013_Soybean&type=p
2. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/89849-us-soy-crop-up-4pc-supply-strain-eases-.html
Soybean always my attention object in trading game. This week, I still pay my attention on soybean. This week, I get 3 soybean long contracts price in $1515, cause soybean demand is expected bigger than the supply, this is a very significant factor. In addition, drought influenced American soybean harvest. It leads to the shortage supply. Through the technical analysis, I expected soybean price will increase. Therefore, I choose long position.
Date in Contract Position Price in Gain/Loss
2012-11-07 S2X Long 1515 -3150*3=-9450
Unfortunately, I lost a lot of money. Then I search the Internet and want to know what happened in soybean market. I get some information, The US soybean crop is much larger than expected, thanks to late-season rains that blunted the impact of the worst drought in half a century, and the corn crop also is marginally larger, the government said on Friday (09 November 2012). Another factor is that I choose the November soybean contract, while November contract is going to the end and expected stock appeared different, heavy selling force the price decrease.
Farm Futures is a very professional website, in this website, I can find the market snapshot , market movement and different kinds of charts in this website. In this website, I can also get weekly analysis, news, weather information.
American soybean association is authoritative website in USA, I can get new information about soybean form this website.
Due to the high soybean price, many farmers will choose to plant soybean, this means from 2012 to 2013, in the world market, the soybean production will be increase. In other hand, soybeans got a boost from data showing private sector factories in China were at their busiest in eight months in October. The data followed other signs in October of economic revival in the country and could signal stepped-up demand for soy. “The economic data was interpreted favorably, leading to some ideas that they are going to import more beans,” said Jerrod Kitt with the Linn Group, a Chicago brokerage. China’s soybean needs improving , farmers also intensify the soybean planting. So we must to know the proportion between expand grew and China’s expanding demand . From last week’s trend, I think soybean price will be decreasing this week.
References:
Last week, I still pay my attention on the soybean market. I choose two long position soybean contracts. In my opinion, China, as the biggest importing soybeans, it is necessary to consider. China recently is preparing for 18th CPC National Congress, this is a very important conference in China. Therefore, in this special period, China will tied to encouraging economic data and hope everything looks better in this period , So as to enhance public confidence.
In other hand, from the Internet I get a information that China will harvest a smaller soybean crop this year than in 2011 because of fewer plantings in a key province.
I think these two factors will lead to the big demand in soybean market , in the world market, the demand is larger than the supply, the soybean price will be increased. So I choose long position soybean contract last week.
Time in Time out Contract Position price in Price out Gain
10-31-2012 11-01-2012 S2X long 1534 1536 99*2=198